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Fantasy Football 2014: Six of this season’s potential Busts

Posted by fantasyfurnace on July 20, 2014
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . 1 Comment

Don’t be fooled or sucked in to drafting players with those ‘sexier’ or familiar names; the perennial names that you just ‘assume’ will do well because at one time they might have. We are not saying not to draft  any of this group, but before spending a draft pick “too early”, check out why we think they could let you down…

Steven Jackson-RB-Falcons- Hard to believe that SJax is only turning 31! Probably because he will be entering his eleventh year in the NFL and those legs have logged over 10,000 rushing yards (10,678 to be exact). We have never been true supporters of Jacksons even in his prime in St. Louis. Since 2004 he has only tallied more than double-digit touchdowns just once in a season.. Over the last five years Jackson has averaged only 5 TDs per year. He no longer is a featured back and thus will garner just a few touchdowns near the goal line while amassing around 500-700 rushing yards. There are better options.

#39 RB Steven Jackson's better days are behind him in Atlanta where Jaquizz Rodgers garners the bulk of the carries. Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports:

#39 RB Steven Jackson’s better days are behind him in Atlanta where Jaquizz Rodgers garners the bulk of the carries. Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports:

Eric Decker-WR-Jets- This probable bust is pretty much a n0-brainer as there are not many who feel that Decker will score 24 more touchdowns over the next two years with either Geno Smith or Michael Vick under center. The Jets’ offense will begin and end with their running back trio of Chris Ivory, Bilal Powell, and Chris Johnson, and when they do opt to throw the ball, Decker will see his share of double teams as the rest of the club’s receivers are not going to scare any opponent this season.

Lamar Miller-RB-Dolphins- While many of our Dolphin fans won’t appreciate this bust selection, savvy fantasy owners will. If you recall, Miller underachieved mightily for the bulk of last season before turning it on late. So what did Miami do? They went out and plucked Knowshon Moreno away from the Broncos leaving Miller’s role such that he will no longer be very fantasy relevant.

Chris Johnson-RB-Jets- Unfortunately, for fantasy owners anyway, Johnson will just get caught up in the log jam at the running back position in New York this season with three, count ’em, three very talented backs all fighting for fantasy points. C.J. will not get many opportunities at the goal line, so his value will drop drastically this season. A very late round pick perhaps, for those in deeper leagues.

#21 Chris Johnson's fantasy potential takes a hit this season in a very crowded & talented backfield. Photo: N.Y. Daily News

#21 Chris Johnson’s fantasy potential takes a hit this season in a very crowded & talented backfield. Photo: N.Y. Daily News

Victor Cruz-WR-Giants- We love and have missed all that “Salsa” action in the end zone from 2012, but suffered along with many other fantasy owners as Cruz’s production crashed and burned last year in Eli Manning’s worst season in memory. Cruz’ touchdowns should go up as we don’t expect Eli to suffer through quite that bad a season as last year, but those expecting Cruz to be a solid WR1 need to temper their expectations and not rush to grab the speedster too quickly otherwise they may realize some disappointment.

Vincent Jackson-WR-Buccaneers- At the outset here is a warning: Stay away from any receiver who might have to depend on soon to be 35 year old quarterback Josh McCown in a very tenable QB situation in Tampa.. If you still want to go after Jackson then consider that in the Buccaneer’s last 10 games, Jackson caught just three touchdowns. Just a sexy name with a disappointing resume. Pass.

In Tampa's last 10 games Jackson had more than six catches in only one week. The Furnace recommends that you 'pass' on this WR.

In Tampa’s last 10 games Jackson had more than six catches only once. The Furnace recommends that you ‘pass’ on this WR. Photo: Getty Images

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Was Kevin Gilbride really to blame for the Giants demise?

Posted by fantasyfurnace on January 6, 2014
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , . 4 Comments

The Giants offensive coordinator tendered his resignation last week and to us, it just doesn’t seem justified. Although it probably was a case of the Giants giving Gilbride the option of resigning rather than being fired, Gilbride said that it was all his decision. In any event, it still begs the question, was the G-men’s lack of offense and ultimate demise mainly his fault?

There are too many reasons to suggest that it wasn’t. The complete collapse of the team’s offensive line and Jerry Reeses’s inability to bring in some players during the season added to Eli Manning’s career-setting 39 sacks as well as his record-setting 27 interceptions. The O-Line, simply put, did not give the beleaguered quarterback the time to make accurate throws and that, coupled with his indecision this season, led to an inordinate amount of hits and sacks.

"The first thing I said to our owners is I'm responsible for the coaches, and to think there's any one individual who is responsible for the circumstances that we found ourselves in, that's crazy" -Tom Coughlin AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

Keven Gilbride, the Giants Offensive Coordinator for the past ten years has now resigned.
AP Photo/Bill Kostroun

We don’t believe that Eli Manning who is a former Super Bowl MVP, suddenly has forgotten how to be an elite quarterback, and more importantly, that it is Gilbride’s fault. Hakeem Nicks, in his contract year no less, was of no use to Manning failing to record even one touchdown this season. Even ‘Mr. Salsa’ himself, Victor Cruz (4 TDs) had an off year as Rueben Randle scored more touchdowns (6). The Giants’ tight end position, once a mainstay of their offense was at best ineffective with Brandon Myers averaging 32.6 receiving yards per game and posting only four touchdowns all season.

At running back, the Giants were devoid of their Earth, Wind, and Fire trifecta on their Super Bowl run. That trio included Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw and Derrick Ward. This year’s group included Andre Brown who broke his leg, David Wilson who had a more serious neck injury, and Brandon Jacobs who couldn’t carry the load single handedly & has since retired. Was the lack of a running game Gilbride’s fault as well? We think not. Once again, without a talented offensive line to open up some lanes, the team’s running backs rang up some of the fewest rushing yards in the league making Eli force many balls downfield as he consistently found himself in 3rd and long situations.

The Giants offense was ranked 28th in the NFL by season’s end. The team struggled, scoring an average of 18.4 points per game and you are not going to win many games scoring just a little over two touchdowns a game. On defense, during their 0-6 start to the season, the Giants, in games 4 through 7, were outscored 146-61. Not your typical Big Blue defense working on all cylinders. Once again, no fault of Kevin Gilbride.

The most telling stat that we were able to come up with was this: The Giants have scored 400 points in one season just five times in their long history. Three of those were under Kevin Gilbride. Enough said.

"The first thing I said to our owners is I'm responsible for the coaches, and to think there's any one individual who is responsible for the circumstances that we found ourselves in, that's crazy."- Tom MARK BONIFACIO/NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

“The first thing I said to our owners is I’m responsible for the coaches, and to think there’s any one individual who is responsible for the circumstances that we found ourselves in (this season), that’s crazy.”- Tom Coughlin Photo: MARK BONIFACIO/NEW YORK DAILY NEWS

NFL 2013: Week #3-The Furnaces Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 20, 2013
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . 16 Comments

Last week’s record: 3-2 Season to date: 6-4  Although we wanted to stay away from the NFC East given their total ineptitude this season,  we find ourselves with one selection from that putrid division. It’s our first Best Bet this week and we’re hopeful it will begin a winning trend this weekend.

Home team in CAPS

1. Giants over the PANTHERS- This is almost a deja vous game given that the G-Men went into Charlotte after a so-so 1-1 beginning to last season and completely overwhelmed Carolina 36-7. Fearing that they could conceivably be 0-3 after this meeting, we expect more of the same this Sunday. Several of the Panthers defensive backs are playing with some sort of handicap which will allow Eli to have his prototypical kind of game. If Ramses Barden can have a career day against Carolina last year, then imagine what a healthy Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and Reuben Randle can do. Expect the Giants to play a bit harder hoping to grab a win for their coach who lost his 63 year old brother John earlier this week in a freak accident while stepping out of a cab.

2. Chargers over the TITANS- San Diego, our second underdog selection in as many picks, has shown little defense over the first two weeks  but Philip Rivers has been off to one of his best starts in years throwing for seven touchdowns against just one lone interception. The Chargers have put up 61 total points in the first two games which were decided by 3 points each week. In his career Rivers has a 5-0 record against the Titans and we look for his sixth win on Sunday.

#17 Philip Rivers will need his offensive line to keep the Titans, and their 7 sacks on the young season, from disrupting his game. John R. McCutchen/San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images:

#17 Philip Rivers will need his offensive line to keep the Titans, and their 7 sacks on the young season, from disrupting his game. John R. McCutchen/San Diego Union-Tribune via Getty Images:

3. VIKINGS over the Browns-  The Vikes, looking for their first win of the season as they faced and lost to two of their division rivals on the road in Weeks 1 and 2, will have a much easier time of it in their home opener on Sunday against the “rebuilding” Cleveland Browns. The debut of newly acquired Willis McGahee will be overshadowed by what we think will be Adrian Peterson’s best game of the season to date. The Vikings need this game because they play their next contest across the pond in London vs the Steelers and then will have to play 12 consecutive games after their week 5 bye to end the season.

4. SAINTS over the Cardinals- Although the Saints have opened the season at 2-0, they haven’t shown the offensive explosiveness that they are accustomed to. Over their first two games this season they are averaging a pedestrian 19.5 points per game while last year, by the time game three rolled around, they were averaging 29.5 PPG. The Cardinals have two key players that have minor injuries going into this game in Larry Fitzgerald (hamstring) and Rashard Mendenhall (toe). The Saints who missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2008, will have Sean Payton on the sidelines and their home crowd in the stands plus a healthy Drew Brees, which is all they’ll need to put away the Cards.

5. Bears over the STEELERS- All signs point to the Steelers winning this game. They have the home crowd, they’re hungry after losing their first two games, and Ben Roethlisberger is 15-1 straight up at home against the NFC in his career. However, we are sticking with the visiting Bears and sacks are one of the reasons why. For starters, the Steelers have only one sack so far this season while last year they averaged almost 3 per game. Jay Cutler on the other hand, a quarterback that usually ends up on his posterior, has only been sacked once in his two home games as the offensive line has been shored up and are protecting Cutler who has been effective and efficient with wins over the Bengals and the Vikings. If he can keep his interceptions down (he has 3 over his first 2 games and had 14 last season), then we think the Steelers can be had with a less than potent running game, the loss of Heath Miller, and a quarterback that’s been sacked 7 times in two games.

The Titans sacking Big Ben in one of their 5 Scott Boehm/Getty Images North America in Week 1.

The Titans sacking Big Ben in one of their 5 sacks in Week #1. Photo: Scott Boehm/Getty Images North America