Potential Busts

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NBA 2013: 6 Potential Busts you should avoid drafting (or drafting too early) Part 1

Posted by fantasyfurnace on October 18, 2013
Posted in: NBA. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . 3 Comments

Depending on your league size and settings, there are a host of players you should steer clear of and if you have to draft them because you’re in a deeper league, then do not draft this group too early. There are other players with a great deal of upside to them, so draft wisely if you want your team to stay competitive.

PART 1 of 2 (PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s)

1. Steve Nash-PG-Lakers- Almost seems sacrilegious to list Nash among players to avoid  drafting too early but we don’t see the veteran ex-Suns superstar playing more than 60 games this season. His assists took a major drop last year and there is little reason to believe it will change now given that Kobe will not play this month and has no timetable for his return from a ruptured achilles. Draft a point guard with potential, not one with merely strong name-value.

#10 PG Steve Nash could miss close to 25% of the season following a broken leg last season and a drop Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America his assists. Photo:

#10 PG Steve Nash whose assists took a major drop last season, could miss playing in 15-20 games this year to help keep him fresh and injury free. Photo: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images North America

2. Greivis Vasquez-PG-Kings- Sacramento’s backcourt reminds me of a Mike Shanahan’s running backs…’a committee of several’. In Sacramento, although  a great pickup for the Kings, Greivis will undoubtedly end up as part of a committee with Isaiah Thomas (a much better defender) and rookie Ray McCallum all sharing the minutes at point guard. Both Thomas and Vasquez will make for latter round pickups.

3. Joe Johnson-SG-Nets- The Nets went out in the off-season and stock piled a host of talented role players making some of their usual starters forced to share the minutes available. Joe “ISO” Johnson will have Jason Terry and Alan Anderson clamoring for playing time and along with several other newly acquired offensive weapons, Johnson, whose game has already begun to decline, will probably end up being over-drafted.

SG Joe Johnson who suffered through Plantar Fasciitis in last year's layoffs, will see a significant drop in his minutes with a deep Nets bench on tap for this season. Photo: Getty Images

SG Joe Johnson who suffered through Plantar Fasciitis in last year’s playoffs, will see a significant drop in his minutes with a deep Nets bench on tap for this season. Photo: Getty Images

4. Dwayne Wade-SG-Heat- Too risky to draft too early, and even though Wade will probably go in the first 2 rounds in most leagues, we’re recommending that you wait until at least the third round if possible. His knees have been a major concern over the past several seasons and it’s the main reason why he shied away from taking his trademark jumper in the Finals. He is too much of an injury risk to grab that early and is destined to disappoint.

5. Paul Pierce-SF-Nets- We are not suggesting to avoid drafting Pierce altogether, but be mindful that he’ll share minutes with Andrei Kirilenko. Pierce has already gone on record saying that he is ready to assume the position of a ‘role player’ indicating that his numbers will be nowhere near what they averaged when he was with the Celtics. The Nets are just too deep a team for many of their players to realize their full value from past seasons.

6. Danilo Gallinari-SF-Nuggets- After undergoing knee surgery in the off-season, the former Knick is not expected to return until late January or early February leaving Wilson Chandler as a prime candidate for Sleeper material. Chandler will be someone you should look to grab with Gallo’s season as questionable as it is. We wouldn’t even suggest stashing Gallinari as we don’t know how he will perform when he does return.

Danillo Gallinari will see more bench time than court time this season as he continues to recover from Knee Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America.

Danilo Gallinari will see more bench time than court time this season as he continues to recover from knee surgery. Photo:Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America.

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Fantasy Football 2013: Avoid Drafting These 10 Potential Busts-Part 2

Posted by fantasyfurnace on July 14, 2013
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . 2 Comments

Here are the final five from our list of potential busts and players we recommend that you don’t take too early in your drafts. If possible, you should have several mock drafts before your ‘real’ ones just to see who is coming off the board and when or who is not. If we’re correct, and your drafts include mainly savvy & experienced fantasy players, the ten players we have listed should get selected in the latter rounds…

AVOID

6. Brandon Pettigrew-TE-Lions- Over the last three seasons Pettigrew has only averaged 4 touchdowns per season and he is on a team that has the NFL’s most prolific offense. Even with a rash of injuries to Lions’ receivers during last season, Pettigrew failed to take advantage. There is no reason to believe that this will change this year so do not rush to pick up this disappointing TE. Pettigrew brings much better value to his team as a blocker, an area in which he excels, but it’s not one that will garner you any fantasy points. Martellus Bennett, for example, is a much better selection at TE than Pettigrew who can serve you only as a back up.

7. Ryan Mathews-RB-Chargers- The first thing that leaps out to you should be Mathews’ injury history which has forced him to miss 10 regular season games over the past three seasons. With two broken collar bones last year alone, Mathews has become too brittle to hold up for an entire season as a featured back. Aware of this, the Bolts went out and made a wise pickup of RB Danny Woodhead from the Patriots who will join third down back Ronnie Brown.

The second thing about Mathews that’s a glaring one, is his inconsistency. In 2010, in 12 games, he had 7 rushing touchdowns. Last season, in 12 games, he rushed for one score. Mathews will get picked up in your drafts to be sure, especially by those who will look at their roster after the first 4-5 rounds and panic, desperate for a RB; any RB! However, he will not be on any of our rosters.

#24 Ryan Mathews had surgery last August after sustaining a broken collar bone on the fist carry the in Pre-Season. Photo: associated press

#24 Ryan Mathews had surgery last August after sustaining a broken collar bone on his fist carry in the Pre-Season vs the Green Bay Packers. Photo: associated press

8. Andrew Luck- QB-Colts- We have the second year QB ranked 12th best on our list of QBs and since none of his first year’s numbers indicate that he will have a sleeper type year we would just tell you not to rush getting Luck on your roster too early. His completion rate was just 54.1% last season; serviceable but not hardly impressive. Couple that with Luck’s 6.98 yards per attempt (17th ranked in the NFL) and you can see how he could be so easily overvalued.

Luck’s completion rate may increase while his picks decrease under new coordinator and Luck’s college coordinator Pep Hamilton but even though he is a West Coast offense man, we don’t expect Luck to finish seventh in passing yards again. Keep your expectations low and your hopes high.

9. David Akers-K-Lions- We are not touting the veteran kicker as solely a potential bust, which he is, given his age and a pelvis injury and subsequent procedure he had last season will attest, but also someone with a possible upside to his game. San Francisco released him last season and Akers will now take Jason Hanson’s place in Detroit, a place where Akers will kick inside a domed stadium; a kicker’s best friend.

So while his potential is ripe for improvement, the chances still remain that he will revert back to last season’s 69% conversion rate. If it sounds like we’re on the fence on this one it’s because we are, however we’re erring on the side of caution and suggesting you grab someone younger and healthier.

10. DST-N.Y. Jets- Darrelle Revis, now with Tampa Bay, is not the reason we have chosen to list the Jets’ Defense and Special Teams as a potential bust. Revis went down in week three with a season ending injury and his heir-apparent Dee Milliner was drafted this past April and should make a decent tandem with Antonio Cromartie. No, what we’re skeptical about is the team’s inability to stop the run. Once a powerhouse in that department, as recent as just two seasons ago, N.Y. was one of the best. However last season they were ranked 26th at stopping opposing RBs.

There was not enough done in the off-season, including the draft, to fix this issue and more importantly with their inept offense, there will be continuos pressure placed on the defense almost every week and we don’t see the Jets handling that too well. The Rams and Cowboys are better options here.

FANTASY FOOTBALL: Avoid drafting these 10 potential busts…

Posted by fantasyfurnace on July 26, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 16 Comments

You spend so much time preparing for your draft; studying player’s past perfomanaces, checking out possible sleepers, breakout candidates, and up and coming rookies. Yet your season can be lost with just a couple of draft picks that fail to meet your  expectations. Here are some potential busts that you should consider avoiding if possible…

1. Reggie Bush-RB- Dolphins- Whenever his name comes up, not long after, the word ‘injury’ undoubtedly follows. Although last year was an anomaly for Bush, he did manage to miss 20 games over the 2010 and 2009 seasons. He rushed for 1086 yards and 6 TDs last season but can you sleep at night without wondering if or when another injury could impede his season? Is his 6 TD’s worth that kind of worry?

#22 Reggie Bush is a tackle away from yet another injury. RB Daniel Thomas will take more carries away from Bush as well. Photo: Marc Serota/Getty Images

2. Rashard Mendenhall-RB-Steelers- My rule of thumb when it comes to running backs coming off of ACL or MCL or any major injury is “let the buyer beware.” Mendenhall is such a back. He tore his right ACL in week 17 and more than likely will begin the season on the PUP list. He wasn’t having a great season before his injury and without knowing how viable a RB he’ll be this year, try to avoid drafting the sexy name, and seek another option instead.

3. Josh Freeman-QB-Buccaneers- Freeman and the next potential bust, Vincent Jackson almost go hand in hand. Mark Sanchez wasn’t the only QB to regress last year. Freeman managed to finish the season with the league’s second most picks, 22 against 16 TDs. Rookie sensation Doug Martin, (one of our Rookie’s to consider this season), will be making up the majority of an already lackluster offense in Tampa Bay; taking some of the pressure off of Freeman. Unfortunately when games get out of hand, he’ll be forced to air it out and that’s when INT’s begin to mount up. Stay clear.

4. Vincent Jackson-WR-Buccaneers- Staying in Tampa Bay, we’re suggesting that V-Jax be avoided if possible as their are danger signs on the outspoken $56 million T.B. pickup in the off season. The offense, as stated above, will be a run heavy one (so says new head coach Greg Schiano), and by leaving the very capable passing prowess of Philip Rivers for a much lower tierd QB in Josh Freeman… well, can you spell bust?

5. Laurent Robinson-WR-Jaguars- In some ways similar to Vincent Jackson, the speedster who exploded for 11 TD’s last year with Dallas, now finds himself on a Jags team with unproven and unimpressive QB Blaine Gabbert istead of a more seasoned Tony Romo. Forget about double-digit touchdowns from Robinson this year. Maurice Jones-Drew and another rookie that we like, Justin Blackmon, will probably make up the major portion  of the Jags’ offense although as Gabbert goes, so will the Jags. Avoid or draft with caution.

6. Mark Sanchez-QB-Jets- The ‘Sanchise’ did a 180 last year and like Josh Freeman,  Sanchez suffered through a regression leading his team to a pedestrian and under achieving 8-8 finish. With the signing of  Tim Terrific, Sanchez, besides losing snaps to the southpaw will find his passes to the endzone limited because of Tebow scampering in on wildcat type of plays. Therefore don’t look for him to put up even ‘Sanchez type of numbers’ like he did in ’09 and ’10. There are other QBs to consider before grabbing this potential and probable bust.

#6 QB Mark Sanchez’ numbers will make him a potentional bust with the addition of Tim Tebow on offense. Photo: nasorb.com

Other potenial busts that you might want to consider leaving on the draft board for someone else are:

Adrian Peterson-RB-Vikings- ACL and MCL tear last Christmas Eve.

Shonn Greene- RB-Jets- Tebow will get short yardage opportunities.

Antonio Gates-TE-Chargers- Foot injuries the last two seasons.

LeGarrette Blount-RB-Buccaneers- Will take a back seat to Doug Martin.