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NFL Week #13: This Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on November 30, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 3 Comments

With just four more weeks in the regular season, we’ve evened our record to a smooth 40-20 while going 3-2 last week. The two games we lost were by a total of four points; Seahawks vs the Dolphins and the Bucs vs the Falcons. Nail-biters both, we came within a hair of going 5-0 for the second consecutive week. Let’s see if we can run the table this week with these five Best Bets…

*Home team in CAPS

JETS over the Cardinals- Rex Ryan says that his team still has one of the leagues five top defenses. I guess he wasn’t on the sidelines when his Jets were outscored 113-28 by the 49ers (week #4) Dolphins (week #8), & the Patriots (week #12). And their defense has almost been as bad as their offense! So the question remains why are we picking them to win this week? Two words: Ryan Lindley. He will be the Cards’ starting QB this week and has a QB rating of 47.0. Oh, and he has never thrown an NFL touchdown. If the Rams could force him into four interceptions last week then the Jets should do at least the same. Unfortunately, after they mop the floor with Arizona, we’re going to hear the Super Bowl predictions spewing out of  Sexy Rexy’s mouth all week…

Jets Coach Rex Ryan needs to cover up his face after reiterating that his club, currently 26th in points allowed, is one of the leagues top five defenses. Photo: nypost.com

Jets Coach Rex Ryan needs to cover up his face after reiterating that his club, currently 26th in points allowed, has one of the leagues top five defenses. Photo: nypost.com

Seahawks over the BEARS- We like the visiting ‘dogs this week in what might end up being a 0-0 game when it’s over. Two of the leagues top defenses squaring off should keep the points low in this one. The Bears’ offensive line is a bit banged up from their game vs the Vikings last week. RB Matt Forte, who suffered an ankle injury in that game, is probable but not someone to count on as he’ll play way less than 100%. (Devin Hester is also questionable). The ‘Hawks, if you’ll remember, beat up Da Bears last December 18th AT Soldier Field 38-14 and we like their defense even better this year. They’re our ‘Upset Special’ of the week. *Editor’s note: The last NFL game to end 0-0 was played on November 7th, 1943 and featured the Lions vs the Giants. There were only 9 total first downs in that game!

49ers over the RAMS- This game might be closer than most think given that these two played to a 24 all tie just a few short weeks ago in week #10 at Candlestick Park. Steven Jackson and Danny Amendola both went over the century mark in that contest, 101 rushing and 102 yards receiving respectively. Two things changed significantly since then; the 49ers defense has played like they did last season and, instead of Alex Smith under center, Colin Kaepernick, who has been on fire, will start and give S.F. a better chance of winning.

RAVENS over the Steelers- These are another couple of teams that could play to a 0-0 tie. Historically, these two rivals  have always played extremely close games- usually decided by one team lining up for a game-winning field goal. The difference this week will be the absence of Ben Roethlisberger from the starting lineup. In that game, Ray Rice was held to just 40 rushing yards, while Byron Leftwich passed for 199 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. The Ravens pulled out the win by…yep, a field goal- 13-10. Sunday, Charlie Batch will go up against Joe Flacco, a matchup that will make the Ravens come out on top.

#5 Joe Flacco is the main reason why the Ravens will win their second meeting vs their rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Photo: ravens.com

#5 Joe Flacco is the main reason why the Ravens will win their second meeting vs the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. Photo: ravens.com

Giants over the REDSKINS- The Giants travel to the nation’s capital for the Monday-Nighter and their second game against the Redskins this season having won the first in week #7 by the score of 27-23. The ‘Skins contained RB Ahmad Bradshaw, holding him to just 43 rushing yards in that one, however WR Victor Cruz had a game high 131 receiving yards and a touchdown while Eli Manning passed for 331 yards on the day. The Giants will need to do a better job at stopping the run if they are to have a legitimate chance at pulling off the victory as RB Alfred Morris and QB RGIII combined for 209 rushing yards in that game. If you believe in deja vous, it was last season (in week #15) that the Redskins stunned the Giants at Met Life Stadium 23-10. It evened their record to 7-7 but the Giants never lost another game in the regular season or in the post season. We’re sure that Big Blue has not forgotten that loss and will use that added incentive to up their record to 8-4.

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OUR PICKS-The Next Day…

Posted by fantasyfurnace on December 5, 2011
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . 3 Comments

Broncos win their fifth in a row…

This game was actually closer than we thought it would be. The Broncos pulled out a win  with a Matt Prater FG with no time remaining for a 35-32 win over the Vikings. Those 32 points were almost as many as Denver had given up over the previous three weeks (36). Other than that, we said Tim Tebow would have an opportunity to ‘show more of his passing capabilities’ and he did, passing for a season high 202 yards and 2 touchdowns. His QB passer rating was an astounding 149.3 and he’s now 6-1 as a starter. The Broncos, our 1st win this week, will next face the Bears and the Patriots at home.

Tim Tebow passed for a season high 202 yards vs the Vikings. Photo: Hannah Foslien/Getty Images

Miami routs the Raiders 34-14… The Dolphins completely shut down the 7-5 Raiders who had won three games in a row coming into this game. The Fins played great defense against the run as Michael Bush really struggled rushing 10 times for just 18 yards. Of course, the silver & black had to forego their running game by the third quarter when the score ballooned  to 34-0. Palmer continued to show why the Raiders gave up so much to get him passing for 273 yards and two TD’s but it was Oakland’s lack of defense that did them in especially in the third quarter when they gave up an obscene 21 unanswered points. We completely underestimated Miami who has now won 4 of their last 5.

RB Reggie Bush runs in for a TD vs the Raiders. He also had 100 rushing yards and 27 more receiving. Photo: Hans Deryk/AP

Chiefs upset the Bears 10-3… Hard to believe the Bears (and us) lost this game essentially on a successful Hail Mary heave by K.C. QB Tyler Palko to end the first half. They figured rather than settling for a long field goal, they would try to find a way to score only their third touchdown since Halloween! It didn’t help the Bears’ cause that RB Matt Forte injured his knee in the first quarter and didn’t return. (He’ll be out 2-4 weeks). Bears QB Caleb Hanie killed any chances for a Bears comeback by throwing another three interceptions for a total of 6 in his last 2 games. The Bears will face the Broncos in Denver next week and then travel to Green Bay two weeks later so they will need Marion Barber’s legs and Kyle Orton’s arm to have any hopes of a wild card berth.

The Chicago Bears faithful will need all the help they can get with the loss of Matt Forte and the total ineffectiveness of QB Caleb Hanie. Photo: Rex Arbogast/AP

49ERS shut out the Rams 26-0… The Niners avenged their loss to the Ravens last week by pouring on the D against the St. Louis Rams. With the win, they now have clinched their division. They completely stifled the Rams’ running game, holding the combination of Steven Jackson and Jerious Norwood to just 38 yards on 21 carries. Rams QB A.J. Feeley was totally inept passing for 156 yards and a QB passer rating of 58.1. Frisco’s QB Alex Smith was sacked 4 times but managed 274 yards and two TD’s. RB Frank Gore ran for 73 yards and TE Vernon Davis who we didn’t recommend, had only 35 receiving yards. The 49ers will be back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002.

This 49ers fan's sign says it all! Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP

Titans take care of the Bills 23-17… In our 3rd win of our five picks, the Titans took care of business and beat the Buffalo Bills 23-17. Chris Johnson as we suggested, had his way with the Bills as he continued his strong play with 153 yards rushing and two touchdowns. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick aired it out , throwing 46 times for 288 yards and a score. RB C. J. Spiller had a much more effective game rushing for 83 yards and a TD.  week. With this win the 7-5 Titans are in second place behind the 9-3 Houston Texans. The Titans who have won three of their last four games play the Saints at home next week. The key game for them could end up being their last game of the season vs the Texans at Houston who dominated them 41-7 back in week 6.

Chris Johnson had another productive week running for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns vs the Bills. Photo: Rick Stewart/Getty Images

* Last week 3-2

** Season   37-23

WEEK #13-The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on December 2, 2011
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . 4 Comments

*Home team in CAPS

1. Broncos over VIKINGS- Look for Tim Tebow to show more of his passing capabilities than we’ve seen in his first six games this year. WR Eric Decker, Tebow’s favorite target, should be the recipient of most of his throws. The (2-9) Vikings, just playing out the string at this point, are still pretty stout against the run. They rank 9th in the league at stopping the run and limit their opponents to just 3.7 yards per carry. Very much in the AFC West hunt, we like Denver in this one on the road where they’re 4-2.

Look for more passing from Tim Tebow vs the Vikings. Photo: Donald Miralle/Getty Images

2. Raiders over DOLPHINS- The Fish have been strong on defense but have been unlucky, blowing three close ones to the Broncos, Giants, and Cowboys. Sporting a (3-8) record, two of those wins, miraculously coming in South Beach; (Miami has been a much better road team in the past several years). With RB Darren McFadden sitting for yet another week, Michael Bush more than adequately will fill his shoes against a Dolphin team that’s tough against the run but his passing game abilities make him a must start this week. Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards last week against a capable Bears secondary and Oakland is 4-1 on the road. The long trip to the east coast shouldn’t bother them this week.

Raider RB Michael Bush rushes in for a touchdown last week vs the Bears. Photo: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

3. BEARS over Chiefs- Kansas City QB Tyler Palko will probably get the start in this one but given that he’s thrown 6 interceptions and fumbled once in his last two games, it won’t be long before newly acquired Kyle Orton will get the call. Matt Forte should be able to have his way with a Chiefs porous run defense that gives up the sixth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Couple that with ‘Da Bears’ exceptional 5-1 home record this season and we think they’ll be 8-4 after Sunday’s game.

Bears WR Johnny Knox could be a factor vs the Chiefs this week. Here he scores on a 29 yard touchdown reception in last week's game vs the Raiders. Photo: Paul Sakuma/AP

4. 49ERS over Rams- Coming off their loss to the Ravens in Baltimore ending their eight game winning streak, the Niners will be looking to not only win the game vs the Rams, but by doing so they will clinch their division. RB Frank Gore will be chomping at the bit as the Rams have already given up 200 rushing yards to two backs so far this year. They have however, been quite sufficient at stopping the pass especially to opposing Tight Ends, making Vernon Davis an iffy play (if you have another TE to put in his place). With S.F. having extra days rest after their Thanksgiving Day game they should cruise by at least ten points or more.

Niners RB Frank Gore leaves the field last week after a Thanksgiving day loss to the Ravens. Photo: Patrick Semansky/AP

5. Titans over BILLS- The Titans at (6-5) are still in position to put up a fight for the AFC South title. With the injuries mounting against the Texans, Tennessee cannot afford to stumble against any team, let alone the 5-6 Bills. RB Chris Johnson has been coming on each week lately and should have his way with a Bills team that has given up the eighth most fantasy points to running backs.  RB C.J. Spiller, playing in place of injured stud Fred Jackson, did not impress last week rushing 19 times for 55 yards; a 2.9 yards per carry average. With the lack of a bona-fide running game, Ryan Fitzpatrick will be forced to air it out so the Titans need to apply the pressure to have a shot at this one. We would suggest playing Scott Chandler on the Bills side of the ball in a game that figures to be a close one with the Titans pulling it out.

Titans Chris Johnson #28 churns out a nice run against Tampa Bay last week and figures to break the century mark vs the Bills this week. Photo: Grant Halverson/Getty Images

* Last week 4-1

** Season    34-21