Giovani Bernard

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Fantasy Football 2013: 10 Rookies worth the Risk-Part 1

Posted by fantasyfurnace on July 23, 2013
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 11 Comments

There is a nice group of rookies represented in the upcoming 2013 season following a very talented NFL Draft. The hard part is selecting the ones that can make an immediate impact on your roster. That’s where we come in. We have culled through the list of first-time NFLers and listed the 10 who we feel are mostly likely ‘worth the risk’. This is an important part of your draft as there can be multiple rookies who could end up potentially  carrying your team to fantasy victory, so choose wisely..700.hq

1. Montee Ball-RB-Broncos- At the outset, we are predicting that Ball will end the season with 1000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns so be sure to check Ball’s stats at the end of the season as we will. If an older and oft injured running back like 32 year old Willis McGahee can average 73 yards a game (as he did last season), then Ball should have a ‘ball’ in this Broncos offense. With McGahee gone (released) and Knowshon Moreno who is coming off of knee surgery and is much less explosive than Ball, it is very likely that Montee will be the Broncos #1 back come the start of the regular season.

Ronnie Hillman will be part of the running back committee in Denver but remember 30 of Hillman’s 107 carries went for no gain or negative yardage last season so his role will be more of a passing down player while Ball will garner the goal-line chores. It seems like this will be Montee Ball’s job to lose and we don’t see that happening.

#38 new Broncos RB Montee Ball receives a hand-off at minicamp. With Willis McGahee being released, Ball has an excellent opportunity to display his talents this season. Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Spor:

#38 New Denver RB Montee Ball receives a hand-off at the Broncos minicamp. With Willis McGahee being released, Ball will be given an excellent opportunity to display his talents this season. Photo: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

2. Le’Veon Bell-RB-Steelers- Even though the blocking at Michigan State left a lot to be desired, Bell still had an outstanding and productive year  and with the Steelers reverting back to the prototypical Pittsburgh ground and pound offense, Bell will fit right in. Think Jerome Bettis with excellent pass-catching ability. Not often you find a big plodder of a back that can catch the ball out of the backfield which makes Bell a more valued commodity to the Steelers as well as to your fantasy team, especially if you are in a PPR league. Bell will be the #1 back in Pittsburgh this season with enormous opportunity and a lot of potential. Grab him if you can.

3. Tavon Austin-WR Rams- Austin will be one rookie that will have an immediate impact as your fantasy starter this season. St. Louis traded up to number 8 in order to get him so not only will he start but he will also take over the role that Danny Amendola (traded to the Patriots) had. Amendola was QB Sam Bradford’s favorite target as his slot receiver ending the season ranked 12th in the league in targets averaging 9.2 per game.

The West Virginia standout who played multiple positions: receiver, running back and returner, never missed a game in college while scoring 28 touchdowns in his last two seasons as a Mountaineer. Austin is another rookie who we would suggest you snag early as we see only good things for him this season.

4. Robert Woods-WR-Bills- Here is another bold prediction. This USC receiving superstar has the talent, we feel, to end the season as a potential Rookie of the Year candidate or at the very least, the rookie with the most receptions in the NFL. This kid caught 250 passes in three seasons at Southern Cal and has better breakaway speed than fellow WR Stevie Johnson. Woods will begin the season as the Bills’ WR2 but could end up as their #1!

His biggest asset is what he does after the catch. Watch his Yards Per Carry stats by season’s end and he will be among the leaders in that category to be sure. This was an excellent draft day pickup for Buffalo who finally gets two standout possession receivers in their passing arsenal.

He is the highest drafted Trojan receiver since Mike Williams was selected 10th He leaves USC as the school's all-time receptions leader and a 2011 All-American. in 2005.

Rookie WR Robert Woods was the highest drafted Trojan receiver since Mike Williams was selected 10th.
He leaves USC as the school’s all-time receptions leader and a 2011 All-American in 2005.

5. Giovani Bernard-RB-Bengals- Perhaps the most versatile running back to come out of this year’s draft, Bernard is another back who you should earmark if you are in PPR leagues. We even put Bernard in the sleeper category in his rookie season given his speed as well as a pass-catching threat. When was the last time the Bengals had a back with his kind of talent?

While BenJarvis Green-Ellis will continue to see the goal line duties which will have some affect on Bernard’s fantasy potential, PPR-leaguers will rack up the fantasy points with this speedster with the golden hands. Don’t sleep on him…

Fantasy Football 2013: Avoid Drafting these 10 Potential Busts-Part 1

Posted by fantasyfurnace on July 12, 2013
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , . 4 Comments

You spend so much time preparing for your draft; studying player’s past perfomanaces, checking out possible sleepers, breakout candidates, and up and coming rookies. Yet your season can be adversely affected  by just a couple of draft picks that fail to meet your  expectations. Here are some potential busts that you should consider avoiding if possible or at least not rush to grab too early…

1. Ben Roethlisberger-QB-Steelers- There are a whole host of reasons why we feel that Big Ben rates no more than a fantasy backup this season. For starters there is the loss of WR Mike Wallace, while TE Heath Miller (torn ACL) will likely begin the year on the PUP list and will be, at best, a mid-season acquisition. The injury prone Roethlisberger who had shoulder & rib injuries in Week 10 last season, seems to get banged up at some point every year. He has missed 8 regular season games since 2010.

Roethlisberger  also missed a beat or two last season as he threw for just 7.27 yards per attempt, second lowest average of his career. And finally, for those of you looking for Big Ben to post a few rushing touchdowns, the last time he had one of those was back in 2010. Find yourself a QB1 somewhere else.

2. BenJarvus Green-Ellis- Bengals- We are not saying not to draft the law firm; instead we don’t think he is a top 25 back and as such you shouldn’t reach for him too early in your drafts. If the Bengals thought that Green-Ellis was their featured RB for years to come, they would not have gone out and drafted Giovani Bernard in the 2nd round last April. As he and Gio will be splitting carries, Green-Ellis’ fantasy value will take a hit.

A more telling sign that should make you think twice before snagging him, is that the BJGE averaged only 3.9 yards per carry last season which tied him with Jets RB Shonn Greene for the worst among 10 backs with at least 275 carries.

#42 BenJarvis Green-Ellis is tackled in a game vs the Browns on 9/16/12. AP Photo/David Kohl

#42 BenJarvis Green-Ellis is tackled in a game vs the Browns on 9/16/12. The law firm had 22 catches last season ranking him 35th among NFL backs. AP Photo/David Kohl

3. Mikel Leshoure-RB-Lions- Except in the deepest of leagues, we do not recommend that you target the 23 year old unless you are looking for a RB3 or a bye-week fill in. With the off-season signing of Reggie Bush, Leshoure’s fantasy numbers will take a nose dive. Yes, he’ll probably gobble up some goal-to-go opportunities as he did last year, but he won’t get the starting duties for the Lions with Reggie Bush fitting in so adroitly with the Lion’s offensive scheme.

At best Leshoure will serve as a backup to Bush and could be utilized more as a flex option in some leagues, like touchdown only ones. The Lions didn’t pay Bush a guaranteed $4 million just to come off the bench…

4. DeSean Jackson-WR-Eagles- This was an easy ‘bust’ candidate for us to select as he has already been a bust over the past several seasons. Unfortunately, many fantasy players see D-Jax on the board and grab him because of his name and ability instead of looking at his resume. In his last two seasons he was targeted 192 times but only reached the endzone 6 times. That’s six touchdowns in 26 games! You could do better!

Granted Jackson has had his share of injuries and has lacked a stable and consistent quarterback but that’s not your problem. You’re trying to win your league and Jackson who only averages 3.9 catches per game is not someone who will help you do that.

5. Kenny Britt-WR-Titans- With Jake Locker under center again, there really isn’t any receiver worthy of fantasy greatness on this Titans team. Clearly not someone like Britt who has not topped 775 yards receiving in any of his four years with the club. Britt has also had some legal issues and an injury history going against him.

Additionally, the Titans sent Britt a message when they drafted WR Justin Hunter this Spring, so unless Locker becomes ‘Peytonesque’ this Fall, Britt is no more than a WR backup.

#10 Kenny Britt shoewn here being carted off the field witha torn ACL & MCL in 2011 has had injury & legal issues throughout his career. Photo: George Walker IV, AP

#10 Kenny Britt, shown here being carted off the field after tearing his ACL & MCL in his right knee in 2011, has had injury & legal issues throughout his career. Photo: George Walker IV, AP

Part 2 will have another 5 potential ‘Busts to avoid drafting…