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NFL Week #8-The Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on October 25, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 6 Comments

We’ve already reached the midway point in the season. After this week’s games you should be able to seperate the contenders from the pretenders as enough of a sampling will be available and you will have a better idea of who will make it to the post-season.

We had 2 losses last week going 3-2. The Bills lost by one which hurt, and the Bengals lost by a touchdown, as Dalton to A.J. was just not working against the rigid Steelers defense even without Troy P. Our season record now stands at a decent 22- 13; better than most pundits but still room to improve. Here’s our top five picks for this week:

*Home team in CAPS

Giants over the COWBOYS-   We picked the Giants over the ‘Skins last week and see no reason why they shouldn’t repeat this week vs the ‘Boys in Dallas. After all, since the $1.2 billion stadium was built in Dallas in 2009, the Giants have had ‘home field advantage’, going 3-0 in their building! Injuries will have a greater impact on the Cowboys this week as RB DeMarco Murray will sit out for another game and RB Felix Jones is questionable. Dallas will also be without their starting center and their leading tackler Sean Lee who’s out for the remainder of the season (toe). The Giants will have Chris Canty, Prince Amukamara, and a healthy Hakeem Nicks, all of whom were missing in the season opening loss to the Cowboys.

#10 Eli Manning goes up vs #9 Tony Romo this Sunday in East Rutherford for the 2nd in their two-game season series. Photo: popscreen.com

JETS over the Dolphins- The 3-3 Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami 23-20 in week #3 and we think history will repeat itself at Met Life Stadium this Sunday. Although Miami boasts the receiver who came into last weeks games leading the NFL in receiving yardage, Brian Hartline, he was held to just one reception for 41 yards when these two teams last met. Could be because at the end of last week, the Jets have  given up the least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. That will mean a lot of Reggie Bush, something that the Jets are well aware of. Kerley, Hill, & Keller should all have a decent day against a Dolphins team that yields the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers- if Sanchez gets the time. A victory gets the Jets another divisional win and evens their record at 4-4 going into their bye week. They’ll take it…

BRONCOS over the Saints-Coming off of their bye, the Broncos take on a Saints team that clearly is under achieving this season. They lost their first four games before defeating the Chargers and Bucs. Their defense is almost non-existent yielding the second most fantasy points to running backs in the league, making Willis McGahee a great play this week in what should be a high scoring affair. Peyton Manning will be throwing against a Saints team that gives up the 4th most FP to WRs in the league. The Broncos secondary can be scored upon as well but have a better overall defense and should pick up their 4th win in this one.

#18 Peyton Manning should put up some good numbers vs the Saints this weekend. RB Willis McGahee is a good play as well.

PACKERS over the Jags- The 4-3 Packers have been coming on since their stunning loss to the Indianapolis Colts in week #5. They beat the Texans and the Rams in their last two and hopefully will not have a let down in this potential ‘Trap’ game against the lowly Jags. The Jags have a fairly good defense but with Maurice Jones-Drew out this week their offense will take a huge hit. Aaron Rodgers completed 81% of his passes last week vs a pretty good Rams secondary and will be challenged a bit as Greg Jennings will sit this one out and Jordy Nelson (hamstring-hurt in practice) is questionable at this point until the extent of this latest setback is known. Expect a lot of Jermichael Finley in this one.

49ers over the CARDINALS- This is a tough game to call as these two teams are so evenly matched. Both have excellent defenses and they play in the same division. They split the season series last year with Arizona winning their game at home by 2 points. The Niners held Larry Fitzpatrick to just 41 yards and a score at S.F. but then he burned them for 149 yards and a touchdown in ‘Arizona. This season however, S.F. is 31st in FP to opposing WRs, just behind the Jets so Fitz might be in for more for a fight defensively this weekend. On the other side, Alex Smith will not be a great play this week as the Cards have given up the least fantasy points to QBs this season. We’re going with the Niners in another close one.

#11 WR Larry Fitzgerald will have to be slowed down if the 49ers are to win this contest vs the Cards. He torched them for 149 yards and 1 TD in Dec. ’11. Photo: Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

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NFL Week #7-The Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on October 19, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 7 Comments

As we surmised there were a fair amount of upsets last week and two of them helped to do us in; the Bills over the Cards and G.B over the Texans. We went 2-3 for the week but came close to going 1-4 as the Raiders made it very interesting in Atlanta. At 19-11 on the season we need a good week to return us to respectablity. Here are our five best bets for week #7:

*Home team in CAPS

GIANTS over the Redskins- It took six games for the mighty Giants defense to show up and after their brilliant performance in San Fransisco last Sunday we think it will carry over into this week’s divisional contest with the Redskins. We might not see the six sacks and three interceptions that did the 49ers in last week when Washington comes to East Rutherford because they are more of a ground & pound team with Alfred Morris & RGIII leading the way. Eli & his receivers are salavating at the ‘Skins lack of defense which yields an average of 417 yards to opposing offenses per game. They also have a bit of a ‘revenge’ factor going into this game as the Redskins did beat the Giants in both of their meetings last year. Giants are 4-2 but are 0-2 in their division and need this one.

#10 Eli Manning has winning on his mind as the G-Men want some payback from their two losses to the ‘Skins last season. Photo: zimbio.com

RAIDERS over the Jags- After nearly pulling out what would have been the biggest upset of the week, the Raiders return to the Black Hole knowing that if they almost beat the undefeated Falcons on the road they certainly should have an easier time with the anemic Jags in their building. The Raiders defense will shine this week as they will face QB Blaine Gabbert who has been sacked 15 times this season and has thrown for 200 yards only once. Outside of RB Maurice Jones-Drew, there is little to get excited about as WR Justin Blackmon, the Jags 1st round pick, has yet to live up to the hype entering this season. The Silver & Black should romp in this one.

PATRIOTS over the Jets- The Jets lost both of their games against the Pats last year; one by 11 points and the other by 21 and their team is no better now than they were in ’11. Beleagured QB Mark Sanchez has averaged 12.6 completions over his last three games while in contrast, Tom Brady’s average is 27. Sanchez has thrown six picks and been sacked 10 times as his offensive line continues to struggle. Don’t be suckered into believing that they have turned things around as they beat a Colts team last week with a rookie quarterback and without their starting RB on the field. Can’t see the Jets and their lack of offense overtake New England at home with their many weapons.

BILLS over the Titans- In what could possibly be the highest scoring game of the day, we’re leaning towards the Bills. Neither team knows the concept of the word ‘defense’ so it could come down to the last team with the ball wins.. Discounting the last two weeks when the Bills played two of the leagues better defenses Arizona & S.F., QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw 12 touchdown passes in the first four games! They have beaten Arizona, Cleveland (the best 1-5 team in the league) and blew out Kansas City at Orchard Park. RB Chris Johnson should have a career day but the Titans defense, which is ranked 25th in the league, will probably go up after this week.

BENGALS over the Steelers-Pittsburgh is having all kinds of injury issues; the worst is that Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman both have been ruled OUT for Sunday night’s game. They have several defensive injuries as well and Maurkice Pouncey, their center remains Questionable. That would be a big loss to their offensive line if Pouncey cannot suit up. At RB, Jonathan Dwyer, who played in just three games last year and has only 24 rushing attempts so far this season, is not going to scare anyone on the Bengals this week. If you look at the Steelers losses this season, to Denver, Oakland, & Tennessee, you would have to scratch your head wondering how this team, now at 2-3, has fallen from grace so rapidly. Clearly the Bengals are a step up in class but QB Andy Dalton needs to cut down on his interceptions (he has 6 in the last three games), if they are to be successful this week.

#14 Andy Dalton seen here celebrating with WR #18 A.J. Green will need to cut down on his picks in order to assure his team a victory vs the Steelers. Photo: cbssports.com

NFL Week #6-The week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on October 12, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . 5 Comments

Following the Titans win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night, a sixth sense is telling me that this could be a week of many upsets. We’ll pick a few underdogs but we won’t go overboard as common sense and statistics will always prevail over sixth sense feelings.

We finished week #5 going 4-1, bringing the last two week’s total to 9-1 and our season record to a more respectable 17-8. We’re hoping this little hot streak continues in Week#6. Here are this week’s five best bets:

*Home team in CAPS

Chiefs over BUCCANEERS: There are several reasons for us going with the Chiefs this week as a road dog. The first is that KC is one of only three teams to rank in the Top 10 in both offense and defense. This week, what makes that stat so overwhelming is that Tampa Bay is one of two teams to rank in the bottom five in both offense and defense. The Bucs have won only one game in their last 14 dating back to October 23 of last year. Their only victory was in week #1 this season; a 16-10 win over Carolina. Not very impressive and thus no reason why the Chiefs cannot pull off the upset in this one.

FALCONS over the Raiders- We simply cannot see the undefeated Falcons caving at home against an under-achieving Raider team that has to travel cross country for the second time in the last four weeks. Raider RB Darren McFadden has only rushed for more than 34 yards just once in Oakland’s four games this season. We don’t think the bye week will help turn this team around enough to beat Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Julio Jones, and co., especially when you take into account that they are 2-8 in their last 10 regular season games.

#20 RB Darren McFadden has had a rough time through 3 of the first 4 games this season failing to rush for more than 34 yards in those games. Photo: denverpost.com

CARDINALS over Bills- The Cards are decimated at the running back position due to injuries to Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams and will have to turn to LaRod Stephens-Howling to handle the starting duties this week, but since as a team they only rush for an average of 2.7 yards per carry and are still 4-1, it shouldn’t make too much of a difference. We like Stephens-Howling and think the Darren Sproles type running back could put up some decent numbers against a Bills team that became the first team to give up 300 yards rushing and 300 yards receiving in the same game!

Lions over the EAGLES- Another upset pick here as the Lions, coming off a bye and in need of a win, travel to a difficult and hostile environment in Philadelphia. The Eagles have been winning games with mirrors all season, winning three games by a total of 4 points and scoring more than 19 points just once in their five games. Michael Vick has been sacked 14 times, has fumbled 8 times, and has looked ‘shaky’ and uncomfortable in every game this season. We don’t think he will be able to match Detroit’s offense which is beyond overdue for a breakout game when all the Eagles were able to muster was 6 points against Arizona in week 3 and 14 points vs the Steelers last week.

#7 QB Michael Vick hasn’t been able to generate much offense due to his fumble issues and many sacks this season. Photo: associatedpress

TEXANS over the Packers- The 2-3 Packers have played some Un-Packer-like football through their first five games this season. They are currently 16th in the league in passing and 20th in rushing. We simply cannot see picking a team that’s lost to Seattle (scoring only 12 points) and Indianapolis, a game in which they were up 21-3 at halftime and lost by giving up 27 points in the final two quarters. You can’t expect them to eke out a win on the road and against the team with the league’s number one defense. Just not happening…