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NFL Playoff Predictions: A weekend for upsets…

Posted by fantasyfurnace on January 4, 2013
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 7 Comments

NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND!

The NFL playoffs are upon us and we’re taking our 51-29 regular season record into this weekend hopeful that we’ll be able to duplicate our 8-2 record in last year’s playoffs as well as correctly picking the eventual Super Bowl winner, finishing at 9-2. In order to be successful once again, we’ll need for some of the teams in the first round to upset their opponents; always a risk. Here’s who we like…

*Home team in CAPS

SATURDAY:

Bengals over the TEXANS- We are strong believers that the teams that peak the latest have the better chance at success. Case in point the Bengals have won 7 of their last 8 games of the regular season-their one loss coming at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys who, with 3:44 left in the fourth quarter kicked a 40 yard field goal for the win. By contrast, the Texans come into Reliant Stadium limping; losing 3 of their last four games including a rout by the Patriots and losses to the Vikings and Colts. Cincinnati has the offense in Andy Dalton, BJGE, A.J. Green and a stellar defense with Michael Johnson and Geno Atkins combining for 24.5 sacks on the season. The Texans are 4.5 point favorites, however we’re picking the Bengals to win this one outright.

PACKERS over the Vikings- The last time QB Christian Ponder met the Pack at Lambeau Field, he had 2 interceptions, threw for a meager 119 yards and managed a QB rating of only 41.9. In last season’s meeting at Green Bay, Ponder finished with one INT, 190 passing yards and a QB rating of 52.3. Temps are due to be dropping into the 20’s for Saturday’s game and Adrian Peterson, who has over 400 yards rushing in their two games vs the Packers this season, has been experiencing some abdominal injuries and so the hits he’ll be expecting will not bode well for the top MVP candidate. The Packers need to keep the ball out of A.P.’s hands however, as clearly Ponder won’t tear apart the Pack’s secondary given his past performances there. The Vikes have lost their last two games at Green Bay by a combined score of 68-21. Packers by double-digits…

#7 Vikings QB Christian Ponder has had a tough go of it at Lambeau Field and Saturday should be no exception. Photo: Adam Bettcher /Getty Images

#7 Vikings QB Christian Ponder has had a tough go of it at Lambeau Field and Saturday should be no exception. Photo: Adam Bettcher /Getty Images

SUNDAY:

Colts over the RAVENS- Talk about a team roaring into the post-season, the Colts are 9-2 over their last eleven and have won 5 of their last six, making them one of the hottest teams in the league. Of course, a lot has to do with their emotional state as head coach Chuck Pagano wages his battle against Leukemia. Now that he’s back on the sidelines, there will be a renewed intensity on the field by this group. Couple that with the steady maturation of first round pick Andrew Luck. He has done his best impression of last year’s version of Eli Manning by putting together seven game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. Throw in his 4,384 passing yards, an NFL rookie record, and you can see why we’re so high on the youngster. It should be a loud and emotionally charged game in Baltimore given the recent news of  17 year veteran MLB Ray Lewis’ impending retirement, but when it’s all over we look for the Colts to win this one outright. Not sure why the Ravens are 6.5 point favorites coming into this game losing 4 out of their last five…

#12 Colts QB Andrew Luck should have plenty of it vs the Ravens and with coach Pagano back on the sidelines to pull off the upset. Photo: vegassharps.com

#12 Colts QB Andrew Luck should have plenty of it vs the Ravens and with coach Pagano back on the sidelines to pull off the upset. Photo: vegassharps.com

REDSKINS over Seahawks- This could be the toughest game of the weekend to predict given that both teams come into this one with a combined 14-1 record over the last eight weeks. Both have very talented and able quarterbacks. However the odds-makers made the ‘Skins a home dog for this contest perhaps because they’re not convinced that RGIII is at 100% or maybe because of the 170 points that the Seahawks have put up over their last four games (even though two of their opponents were Buffalo and Arizona). We’re going with Washington here because of another reason; one less obvious. In the confines of CenturyLink Field, the Seahawks are 8-0 and part of that is due to the 12th man being their stadium that boasts one of the noisiest arenas in the NFL. However, they have lost 5 games on the road which, if nothing else, shows their vulnerability. Landover can get pretty rowdy as well and we love the combo of RGIII and Alfred Morris. ‘Skins in a close one.

 

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NFL Week #14: The Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on December 8, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 Comments

Close losses last week of the field goal variety, did us in in two of our three losses bringing the season total to 42-23. We did manage to pick our upset of the week correctly, a stunning victory by the Seahawks over Da Bears and the hapless Jets one point win over the pedestrian Cardinals in 1 7-6 snorer… We’re hoping that we get to finish the season out strong as we did last year so here’s our Five Best Bets for week #14…

*Home team in CAPS

Jets over the JAGUARS- Who would have thought we’d go back to the well and pick the anemic Jets twice in two weeks? Well this matchup was just too tempting to pass up. The Jets need to leave the hostile & depressing confines of Met Life Stadium and this this Floriday trip gives them that opportunity. The Jags are a team even worse off than the Gang Green having lost five out of six home games this season. They will be without their best offensive weapon of late in WR Cecil Shorts leaving them with WR Justin Blackman, TE Marcedes Lewis, and fourth RB back up Montel Owens (no relation to Terrell). If they can tighten up their defense again which surrended just 6 points to the lowly Cardinals last week, they should win this one handily.

#89 Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis along with EWR Justin Blackmon should be the main offensive threats for the lifeless Jaguars this week vs the Jets. Photo: jaguarsgab.com

#89 Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis along with WR Justin Blackmon should be the main offensive threats for the lifeless Jaguars this week vs the Jets. Photo: jaguarsgab.com

BROWNS over the Chiefs– This won’t be the same game emotionally driven game the Chiefs played last week immediately following the tragic loss and double murders of Jovan Belcher and his girlfriend. They travel to Cleveland this week to face a much improved Browns team that should easily handle a Chiefs group who basically are playing out the rest of the season and awaiting a top pick in the 2013 NFL draft. We like how QB Brandon Weeden has progressed and were impressed with WR Josh Gordon’s breakout game last week. Not many more accolades we could come up with for RB Trent Richardson who should have a monstrous game this week.

WR Josh Gordon, the youngest player on the Browns (turned 21 last April), leads the team with 646 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Photo:John Kuntz, The Plain Deale

WR Josh Gordon, the youngest player on the Browns (turned 21 last April), leads the team with 646 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Photo:John Kuntz, The Plain Dealer

STEELERS over the Chargers- Big Ben is expected to start in this one and that boost alone make the Steelers  more of a 6 point favorite to us. The Black & Gold have won 5 of their last seven, (two losses coming with replacements Leftwich and Batch in at QB for the injured Roethlisberger. They are currently sitting in 2nd in the AFC North at 7-5. The Chargers, on the other hand are going in an opposite direction as they are losers of their last four in a row and seven out of eight. Philip Rivers has passed for 300 or more yards just twice all season while RB Ryan Matthews has yet to eclipse 100 rushing yards in an one game. The Steelers would like a win here too because they’ll face the Bengals and the BRowns in their final two.

BUCCANEERS over the Eagles-  The Eagles put up a fight last week in Dallas losing 38-33 with Bryce Brown rushing for another big game with 169 yards which follows his 178 rushing game vs the Panthers the week prior. The Sunday night game in Dallas which now is followed by this week’s game in Tampa Bay make the Eagles, losers of their last eight straight games, another team just playing out the string. The 6-6 Buccaneers, currently second in the NFC South, have something to play for at least.Although losers of their last two to Atlanta & Denver by a combined total of 9 points, Josh Freeman should have an easy time in the pocket without any semblance of a pass rush from the Eagles defensive line. RB Doug Martin should also be in beast mode for this one.

#22 RB Doug Martin is well on his way to 300 carries this season. Photo: zimbio.com

#22 RB Doug Martin is well on his way to 300 carries this season. Photo: zimbio.com

BENGALS over the Cowboys- This is the time of year that the Cowboys begin their annual descent from the standings. They stand at 6-6 in second place in the highly contested NFC East but have forgotten how to play defense over the last two games yielding 64 points to the Redskins and Eagles. They will play their final three games against the Steelers, Saints  and Redskins; no easy task to be sure. Meantime the high potent offense of Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, BJGE, etc. have won their last four and are 7-5; second in the NFC North. This should be a high scoring affair for a Bengals team already on a roll.

NFL Week #1-The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 7, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 Comments

We finished the regular season last year with a 52-28 record in our first year of prognosticating. (We didn’t begin picking 5 each week until week 2, thus the total of 80 games). Clearly we are looking to improve on that number although a 65% winning record isn’t so terrible.  Here now are our first weeks ‘Best Bets’:

*HOME team in CAPS

JETS over Bills- The Bills, for the most part, and quite surprisingly, decided to stand pat with last year’s team. Their only addition on offense was T.J. Graham out of North Carolina who was picked up in the third round of the draft. We like WR Stevie Johnson and the two RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  However, our problem is with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who finished last season’s final four games with 4 TDs and nine INTs. Not a great ratio. We’ll cut him a little slack as it was discovered that he played through some rib injuries, but other QBs have played through worse…

The Jets lost their last three games of the regular season in 2011 and all four pre-season games last month. This contest at Met Life Stadium on Sunday will tell a lot about who they really are and if this ‘Wildcat’ option will or won’t work. Right now the best thing they have going for them is their defense which might be all they’ll need to handle the Bills who they beat twice last season.

#10 WR Santonio Holmes scoring on one of four TD passes Sanchez threw in the Jets 28-24 win over the Bills last Nov. 27th. Photo: turnonthejets.com

Panthers over BUCS- This year the Panthers are already destined to be a much better team and not just because of the maturation of QB phenom Cam Newton. It’s their defense  which was ranked 28th in the league last year that will be much improved . Three important components of their D have returned from injuries: Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Ron Edwards. They won’t be the ’85 Bears but you WILL see a difference. Plus it will be the second season for defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator in Mike Sullivan; a run first, tough disciplinarian. QB Josh Freeman is coming off a year in which he regressed dramatically from his 2010 numbers but perhaps the Vincent Jackson signing will help him to improve. The addition of Doug Martin is a good one as he’ll compliment a much better back in LeGarrette Blount but the Panthers just have too many weapons and a rising super star at QB to lose this one.

Patriots over TITANS- New England begins their season on the road but it won’t really matter as they will be trying to shake off the remnants from the stunning loss to the N.Y. Giants in last year’s Super Bowl. There really is no reason why the Pats can’t go 14-2 or 15-1 this season because they are THAT good! Some of the changes on offense of note is WR Brandon Lloyd who takes the place of Deion Branch and Stevan Ridley who fills the spot vacated by the law firm BJGE now in Cincinnati . They still have 2 top tier tight ends, a top three QB, and pro-bowl kicker. And their defense is more than serviceable.

The Titans who have some nice pieces on offense, have a rookie QB and two more major questions that loom over this team:  Will the Chris Johnson that we’ll see be more like the 2010 stud or the 2011 disappointment? And how will WR Kenny Britt fair coming off of ACL and MCL surgery? While we wait to find out, we’ll pick the Patriots to handle the Titans this week.

#28 RB Chris Johnson says he’s ready to return to his breakout numbers of 2010 again. He’ll need to if the Titans are to be competitive. Photo: cbssports.com

VIKINGS over Jags- Jacksonville, even with some of their off-season pickups will need a few games under their belt to show how good (or bad) they are. Maurice Jones-Drew will need some time to shake off the rust from his hold out. We’ll have to wait and see if QB  Blaine Gabbert, now in his second year, can hold on to the starting job with a limited amount of quality receivers and Chad Henne waiting on the sidelines. WR Laurent Robinson had a breakout season with Dallas last year but it’s one thing receiving passes from Tony Romo and it’s quite another when it’s Gabbert.

The Vikes have two potential sleepers on their roster to watch. RB Toby Gerhart who will get a nice share of carries with Adrian Peterson not 100%,  and Visanthe Shiancoe’s replacement second round pick TE Kyle Rudolph. He’s an excellent receiver who just might surprise this year. And of course their best playmaker, Percy Harvin, will be a major part of their offense. I think Jared Allen & the rest of the Vikings defense keeps the Jags out of the endzone in this one and gives Minnesota the victory.

CARDINALS over Seahawks- The Cardinals have a pretty good team that’s coming off a rather impressive end to last season when they won 5 of their last 6 games including wins over the 49ers and Cowboys. Of course there’s Larry Fitzgerald, old reliable, and now rookie Michael Floyd on the other side of Fitz. TE Todd Heap is getting up there but can still draw atttention and RB Ryan Williams who has the potential for having a sleeper season.

Seattle might be without their feature back Marshawn Lynch (back spasms) who, as of Friday night, is still listed as Questionable. His absence would be huge and would mean that another possible sleeper, Robert Turbin, would get the starting nod. He runs low to the ground and has some nice speed for a 5’11” 222 pounder. Keep your eyes on him if gets some major playing time on Sunday. Still and all it won’t be enough to match the more talented roster of the Arizona Cardinals.

#11 WR Larry Fitzgerald will be the main part of the Cardinals Offense and will do better this year with WR Michael Floyd on the other side of the field. Photo:neverpunt.com