Here are the final five from our list of potential busts and players we recommend that you don’t take too early in your drafts. If possible, you should have several mock drafts before your ‘real’ ones just to see who is coming off the board and when or who is not. If we’re correct, and your drafts include mainly savvy & experienced fantasy players, the ten players we have listed should get selected in the latter rounds…
6. Brandon Pettigrew-TE-Lions- Over the last three seasons Pettigrew has only averaged 4 touchdowns per season and he is on a team that has the NFL’s most prolific offense. Even with a rash of injuries to Lions’ receivers during last season, Pettigrew failed to take advantage. There is no reason to believe that this will change this year so do not rush to pick up this disappointing TE. Pettigrew brings much better value to his team as a blocker, an area in which he excels, but it’s not one that will garner you any fantasy points. Martellus Bennett, for example, is a much better selection at TE than Pettigrew who can serve you only as a back up.
7. Ryan Mathews-RB-Chargers- The first thing that leaps out to you should be Mathews’ injury history which has forced him to miss 10 regular season games over the past three seasons. With two broken collar bones last year alone, Mathews has become too brittle to hold up for an entire season as a featured back. Aware of this, the Bolts went out and made a wise pickup of RB Danny Woodhead from the Patriots who will join third down back Ronnie Brown.
The second thing about Mathews that’s a glaring one, is his inconsistency. In 2010, in 12 games, he had 7 rushing touchdowns. Last season, in 12 games, he rushed for one score. Mathews will get picked up in your drafts to be sure, especially by those who will look at their roster after the first 4-5 rounds and panic, desperate for a RB; any RB! However, he will not be on any of our rosters.
8. Andrew Luck- QB-Colts- We have the second year QB ranked 12th best on our list of QBs and since none of his first year’s numbers indicate that he will have a sleeper type year we would just tell you not to rush getting Luck on your roster too early. His completion rate was just 54.1% last season; serviceable but not hardly impressive. Couple that with Luck’s 6.98 yards per attempt (17th ranked in the NFL) and you can see how he could be so easily overvalued.
Luck’s completion rate may increase while his picks decrease under new coordinator and Luck’s college coordinator Pep Hamilton but even though he is a West Coast offense man, we don’t expect Luck to finish seventh in passing yards again. Keep your expectations low and your hopes high.
9. David Akers-K-Lions- We are not touting the veteran kicker as solely a potential bust, which he is, given his age and a pelvis injury and subsequent procedure he had last season will attest, but also someone with a possible upside to his game. San Francisco released him last season and Akers will now take Jason Hanson’s place in Detroit, a place where Akers will kick inside a domed stadium; a kicker’s best friend.
So while his potential is ripe for improvement, the chances still remain that he will revert back to last season’s 69% conversion rate. If it sounds like we’re on the fence on this one it’s because we are, however we’re erring on the side of caution and suggesting you grab someone younger and healthier.
10. DST-N.Y. Jets- Darrelle Revis, now with Tampa Bay, is not the reason we have chosen to list the Jets’ Defense and Special Teams as a potential bust. Revis went down in week three with a season ending injury and his heir-apparent Dee Milliner was drafted this past April and should make a decent tandem with Antonio Cromartie. No, what we’re skeptical about is the team’s inability to stop the run. Once a powerhouse in that department, as recent as just two seasons ago, N.Y. was one of the best. However last season they were ranked 26th at stopping opposing RBs.
There was not enough done in the off-season, including the draft, to fix this issue and more importantly with their inept offense, there will be continuos pressure placed on the defense almost every week and we don’t see the Jets handling that too well. The Rams and Cowboys are better options here.