We’ve already reached the midway point in the season. After this week’s games you should be able to seperate the contenders from the pretenders as enough of a sampling will be available and you will have a better idea of who will make it to the post-season.
We had 2 losses last week going 3-2. The Bills lost by one which hurt, and the Bengals lost by a touchdown, as Dalton to A.J. was just not working against the rigid Steelers defense even without Troy P. Our season record now stands at a decent 22- 13; better than most pundits but still room to improve. Here’s our top five picks for this week:
*Home team in CAPS
Giants over the COWBOYS- We picked the Giants over the ‘Skins last week and see no reason why they shouldn’t repeat this week vs the ‘Boys in Dallas. After all, since the $1.2 billion stadium was built in Dallas in 2009, the Giants have had ‘home field advantage’, going 3-0 in their building! Injuries will have a greater impact on the Cowboys this week as RB DeMarco Murray will sit out for another game and RB Felix Jones is questionable. Dallas will also be without their starting center and their leading tackler Sean Lee who’s out for the remainder of the season (toe). The Giants will have Chris Canty, Prince Amukamara, and a healthy Hakeem Nicks, all of whom were missing in the season opening loss to the Cowboys.
JETS over the Dolphins- The 3-3 Jets beat the Dolphins in Miami 23-20 in week #3 and we think history will repeat itself at Met Life Stadium this Sunday. Although Miami boasts the receiver who came into last weeks games leading the NFL in receiving yardage, Brian Hartline, he was held to just one reception for 41 yards when these two teams last met. Could be because at the end of last week, the Jets have given up the least amount of fantasy points to wide receivers in the league. That will mean a lot of Reggie Bush, something that the Jets are well aware of. Kerley, Hill, & Keller should all have a decent day against a Dolphins team that yields the 8th most fantasy points to wide receivers- if Sanchez gets the time. A victory gets the Jets another divisional win and evens their record at 4-4 going into their bye week. They’ll take it…
BRONCOS over the Saints-Coming off of their bye, the Broncos take on a Saints team that clearly is under achieving this season. They lost their first four games before defeating the Chargers and Bucs. Their defense is almost non-existent yielding the second most fantasy points to running backs in the league, making Willis McGahee a great play this week in what should be a high scoring affair. Peyton Manning will be throwing against a Saints team that gives up the 4th most FP to WRs in the league. The Broncos secondary can be scored upon as well but have a better overall defense and should pick up their 4th win in this one.
PACKERS over the Jags- The 4-3 Packers have been coming on since their stunning loss to the Indianapolis Colts in week #5. They beat the Texans and the Rams in their last two and hopefully will not have a let down in this potential ‘Trap’ game against the lowly Jags. The Jags have a fairly good defense but with Maurice Jones-Drew out this week their offense will take a huge hit. Aaron Rodgers completed 81% of his passes last week vs a pretty good Rams secondary and will be challenged a bit as Greg Jennings will sit this one out and Jordy Nelson (hamstring-hurt in practice) is questionable at this point until the extent of this latest setback is known. Expect a lot of Jermichael Finley in this one.
49ers over the CARDINALS- This is a tough game to call as these two teams are so evenly matched. Both have excellent defenses and they play in the same division. They split the season series last year with Arizona winning their game at home by 2 points. The Niners held Larry Fitzpatrick to just 41 yards and a score at S.F. but then he burned them for 149 yards and a touchdown in ‘Arizona. This season however, S.F. is 31st in FP to opposing WRs, just behind the Jets so Fitz might be in for more for a fight defensively this weekend. On the other side, Alex Smith will not be a great play this week as the Cards have given up the least fantasy points to QBs this season. We’re going with the Niners in another close one.
All those teams are the favorites, are you saying bet money line or minus the points? If it’s a money line bet, it won’t pay much. For instance, of course the Packers are going to win, theyre 16 point faves! Betting $100 on Green Bay to win straight up would pay like $6.
This is a rare week in that if you look back at the previous 7 weeks of our best bets, you will see many games that we picked that were clearly not favorites. In the case of the Packers this week who are overwhelming favorites betting the money line would be like betting on a horse who has odds of say 6-5 or so. Many do just like many do not. Although we just pick which team will win or lose each week, it’s more predicated on the points than anything else.
Thanks for commenting and good luck to you!
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To say that I loved the Dolphins performance despite Tanehill’s early exit, would be an understatement. After Tony Sparano’s ridiculous Super Bowl celebration in Miami earlier this year, I was stoked for the rematch and Miami didn’t disappoint me for once. I like what’s going on in Miami right now, and hopeful that Tannehill’s injuries aren’t of the lingering variety.
It’s a mild quad injury. He should be fine although ou didn’t lose much when Moore came in..
Moore had it going on today. I’m glad we held on to him after all.