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NFL Week #14: The Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on December 8, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 comments

Close losses last week of the field goal variety, did us in in two of our three losses bringing the season total to 42-23. We did manage to pick our upset of the week correctly, a stunning victory by the Seahawks over Da Bears and the hapless Jets one point win over the pedestrian Cardinals in 1 7-6 snorer… We’re hoping that we get to finish the season out strong as we did last year so here’s our Five Best Bets for week #14…

*Home team in CAPS

Jets over the JAGUARS- Who would have thought we’d go back to the well and pick the anemic Jets twice in two weeks? Well this matchup was just too tempting to pass up. The Jets need to leave the hostile & depressing confines of Met Life Stadium and this this Floriday trip gives them that opportunity. The Jags are a team even worse off than the Gang Green having lost five out of six home games this season. They will be without their best offensive weapon of late in WR Cecil Shorts leaving them with WR Justin Blackman, TE Marcedes Lewis, and fourth RB back up Montel Owens (no relation to Terrell). If they can tighten up their defense again which surrended just 6 points to the lowly Cardinals last week, they should win this one handily.

#89 Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis along with EWR Justin Blackmon should be the main offensive threats for the lifeless Jaguars this week vs the Jets. Photo: jaguarsgab.com

#89 Jaguars TE Marcedes Lewis along with WR Justin Blackmon should be the main offensive threats for the lifeless Jaguars this week vs the Jets. Photo: jaguarsgab.com

BROWNS over the Chiefs- This won’t be the same game emotionally driven game the Chiefs played last week immediately following the tragic loss and double murders of Jovan Belcher and his girlfriend. They travel to Cleveland this week to face a much improved Browns team that should easily handle a Chiefs group who basically are playing out the rest of the season and awaiting a top pick in the 2013 NFL draft. We like how QB Brandon Weeden has progressed and were impressed with WR Josh Gordon’s breakout game last week. Not many more accolades we could come up with for RB Trent Richardson who should have a monstrous game this week.

WR Josh Gordon, the youngest player on the Browns (turned 21 last April), leads the team with 646 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Photo:John Kuntz, The Plain Deale

WR Josh Gordon, the youngest player on the Browns (turned 21 last April), leads the team with 646 receiving yards and 5 TDs. Photo:John Kuntz, The Plain Dealer

STEELERS over the Chargers- Big Ben is expected to start in this one and that boost alone make the Steelers  more of a 6 point favorite to us. The Black & Gold have won 5 of their last seven, (two losses coming with replacements Leftwich and Batch in at QB for the injured Roethlisberger. They are currently sitting in 2nd in the AFC North at 7-5. The Chargers, on the other hand are going in an opposite direction as they are losers of their last four in a row and seven out of eight. Philip Rivers has passed for 300 or more yards just twice all season while RB Ryan Matthews has yet to eclipse 100 rushing yards in an one game. The Steelers would like a win here too because they’ll face the Bengals and the BRowns in their final two.

BUCCANEERS over the Eagles-  The Eagles put up a fight last week in Dallas losing 38-33 with Bryce Brown rushing for another big game with 169 yards which follows his 178 rushing game vs the Panthers the week prior. The Sunday night game in Dallas which now is followed by this week’s game in Tampa Bay make the Eagles, losers of their last eight straight games, another team just playing out the string. The 6-6 Buccaneers, currently second in the NFC South, have something to play for at least.Although losers of their last two to Atlanta & Denver by a combined total of 9 points, Josh Freeman should have an easy time in the pocket without any semblance of a pass rush from the Eagles defensive line. RB Doug Martin should also be in beast mode for this one.

#22 RB Doug Martin is well on his way to 300 carries this season. Photo: zimbio.com

#22 RB Doug Martin is well on his way to 300 carries this season. Photo: zimbio.com

BENGALS over the Cowboys- This is the time of year that the Cowboys begin their annual descent from the standings. They stand at 6-6 in second place in the highly contested NFC East but have forgotten how to play defense over the last two games yielding 64 points to the Redskins and Eagles. They will play their final three games against the Steelers, Saints  and Redskins; no easy task to be sure. Meantime the high potent offense of Andy Dalton, A.J. Green, BJGE, etc. have won their last four and are 7-5; second in the NFC North. This should be a high scoring affair for a Bengals team already on a roll.

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NFL WEEK #2-This Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 14, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 comments

We finished the first week of the season going a respectable 4-1. Our only loss coming in the Bucs 16-10 win over the disappointing Carolina Panthers. No one figured on QB Cam Newton’s total of 10 rushing yards for the game and that Tampa’s defense  would prove too much for the visiting Panthers. Here are our picks for week #2:

*Home team in CAPS:

Ravens over the EAGLES: If coach Andy Reid needs to finish the season at better than 8-8 in order to return next year, then he’s going to be off to an inauspicious 0-2 start if we’re right. Watching veterans Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company on defense even without Terrell Suggs, is a lot for any team to handle. QB Joe Flacco looked more like Joe Montana passing for 299 yards,( no INTs) and 2 touchdowns. The 44-13 rout made the Ravens only the fifth team in NFL history to score 40 or more points in a season opener. The Eagles just barely beat the lowly Browns 17-16 in a game that saw Michael Vick throw 4 picks. They’ll need more than 17 points to defeat Baltimore this Sunday.

Even without LB Terrell Suggs, the Ravens defense is still one of the best in the league & will be after Michael Vick all day. Photo: Baltimoreravens.com

CHARGERS over the Titans: San Diego, who usually starts the season off very slowly out of the gate, might be finally bucking that trend . In 2011 they won 4 out of their first 5 and we think they’ll go 2-0 after this week’s contest vs the Titans. RB Chris Johnson had a poor showing  vs the Patriots last week rushing 11 times for a net of only 4 yards! He said before the season began that we would see the 2010 version of C.J. but it didn’t look like it in week 1. QB Jake Locker who injured his shoulder on opening day practiced this week and said he felt no pain. Besides the Chargers, history goes against Tennessee as the Bolts have beaten the Titans/Oilers franchise six straight times by 17 or more points. Do you believe in history?

GIANTS over Buccaneers: The Dallas Cowboys simply outplayed the G-Men in East Rutherford in their first meeting of the season. The Giants will not be outplayed by Tampa Bay in their building this week. The defensive tandem of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and JPP didn’t record a sack or knockdown of QB Tony Romo and we don’t think that will happen on Sunday vs QB Josh Freeman. Nor do we think that WR Victor Cruz drops three passes again this week. They will need to run the ball successfully against a very stout Tampa defense and the 10 days that the Giants had to prepare for this one should help to do that. Big Blue will ruin coach Greg Schiano’s return to N.J. with a convincing win but will have only four days rest before they face the Panthers on Thursday night.

The big three on ‘D’: JPP, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck will not go another week without a sack or two vs QB Josh Freeman. Photo: corner.bigblueinteractive.com

Redskins over the RAMS: Although the ‘Skins gave up a ton of points to the Saints last week, they still managed to do some great things on defense like picking off stud QB Drew Brees twice and sacking him a couple of times as well. But the most impressive part of the Redskins game  was the play of the two rookies; QB Robert Griffin (320 yards and 2 touchdowns-10 rushes -42 yards) and RB Albert Morris (96 rushing yards and 2 TDs). The Rams defense will not be able to keep them both in check and we expect another two amazing performances by the first year duo. The Rams could only manage 251 total net yards and 14 first downs vs the Lions in week one and they’ll need more than that to topple Washington who put up 40 points vs the Saints a week ago.

COLTS over the Vikings: Indianapolis, our second underdog pick this week, features rookie QB Andrew Luck in his home opener. In his debut last week against the Bears at Chicago, Luck made some rookie mistakes (3 interceptions-2 fumbles) but that wasn’t too shocking considering he was going up vs one of the premier defenses in the NFL. However it wasn’t all bad for the Colts. They had 11 less minutes in time of possession and still were able to amass almost as many 1st downs as the Bears  (22 vs 26) so they did move the ball. Luck threw for 309 yards and a TD and RB Donald Brown out of UCONN had a rushing TD and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The Vikings just pulled out an OT win over the Jaguars at home last week which is no great feat because if you can barely win at home you’ll probably lose on the road.

We think that #12 QB Andrew Luck’s homecoming will result in his first win in the Pros vs the Vikings. Photo: wibc.com

WEEK #14- The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on December 10, 2011
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , . Leave a Comment

*Home team in CAPS

1. LIONS over Vikings- Even though RB Adrian Peterson is expected to play on Sunday, the Vikings just can’t keep pace with the kind of numbers Detroit can put on the board. They scored 48 points vs Kansas City, 34 vs Dallas, and 45 vs the Broncos; all three teams with fairly good defenses. The Lions just need to avoid hurting themselves with dirty play and stupid penalties. As for the Vikings, if Peterson is not 100% then it will probably mean Christain Ponder to Percy Harvin…all day long. We’re going with the Lions.

"Okay, you just keep passing the ball to Calvin and we win... Photo: Wesely Hitt/Getty Images

2. JETS over Chiefs- Considering that in the three games that QB Tyler Palko has started he has only thrown one TD pass (and that was a Hail Mary toss) we don’t see any reason to believe that he will light it up against a good Jets defensive unit. Especially given that Palko has thrown 6 picks in those games. The Jets have won their last two games putting up 62 points on the board. Shonn Greene will hope to build off of last week’s brilliant performance (3 TD’s) and the entire offense seems to be clicking. While we don’t think that this will be a blowout, we’ll expect something like a 21-6 Jets win.

Jets RB Shonn Greene rushes for one of his three touchdowns last week vs the Redskins. Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images

3. DOLPHINS over Eagles- Both teams are 4-8 but we think the Eagles will end the day at 4-9. The so-called ‘Dream Team’ has played more like a ‘Scheme Team’ this year and we don’t think that getting Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin back will mean an automatic ‘W’ for the Birds. RB Reggie Bush should have a great game as the Eagles who give up the sixth most receiving yards to running backs, and those of you in PPR leagues already know how valuable Bush can be. In their last seven games, the Fins have won 4 and lost the other 3 by 3 points or less. We expect the Dolphins to continue their winning ways.

RB Reggie Bush runs in for a TD against the Raiders last week. He should have a great game on Sunday vs the Eagles. Photo: AP

4. BRONCOS over Bears- Hard to go with a team that’s lost it’s starting QB and RB. It’s also hard to go AGAINST a team that’s got a QB that’s lead his team to five straight victories. The Broncos, tied with the Raiders for 1st place in the AFC West, have a tough game next week vs the Patriots, and then end the season vs the Bills and the Chiefs which will make them 9-6. Look for Bears WR Johnny Knox to have a good day against a Broncos team that gives up the 5th most fantasy points to WR’s. Of course that’s if QB Caleb Hanie doesn’t throw too many more picks…Broncos in a close one.

Tim Tebow will face a tougher defense in the Bears and won't have the great passing day he did last week vs the Vikings. Photo: Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

5. CHARGERS over Bills- Monday night the Chargers finally got their act together beating the Jags convincingly 38-14. Rivers played like a top tier quarterback again throwing for just under 300 yards and 3 touchdowns with a QB rating of 146.1. This week, the Bills, losers of five straight, have to travel to the West Coast which is never an easy task. Expect QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw the ball his usual 40-45 times with Stevie Johnson to be the recipient of many of them especially in the absence of Scott Chandler (ankle) who has 6 TD’s on the season. C.J. Spiller had the best day of his career last week rushing for 102 yards but the Chargers, who are still in it, should take care of the Bills who are playing out the schedule at this point. Look for a high scoring affair in this one.

QB Philip Rivers had a 'Philip Rivers' kind of day last Monday Night vs the Jags, throwing 3 TD's. Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

* Last week 3-2

** Season 37-23