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Fantasy Football: Week #11 Waiver Wire Pickups

Posted by fantasyfurnace on November 14, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 4 comments

Between bye weeks and injuries there has to be some players that will help to fill a void (or two) on your roster this week. The amount of concussed players rises every week and one can only wish that there will be ways to help minimize these serious health concerns. Just last week we saw Alex Smith, Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, and Fred Jackson, just to name a few, succumb to either concussion or other bodily injury. Several of these and other players will be out for Sunday’s games so here are some pickups that hopefully you can still grab in your leagues…

Carson Palmer-QB-Raiders- The Raiders will be going up against the defensively challenged Saints this week and we’re touting Palmer because New Orleans has given up the most fantasy points to QBs in the league. They also yield close to 500 yards of offense to opposing teams which should benefit the Raiders who were blown away by the Ravens last week. Palmer was 29-45 for 368 yards and two touchdowns in that game although admittedly a lot of the throws came when the game was clearly out of hand. He has however , thrown 45 or more passes in 3 of his last 4 games and has just become the first Raider QB since Ken Stabler to throw eight 300-yard passing games. He’s still available in around 40% of most leagues.

#3 Raiders QB & veteran Carson Palmer becomes even more fantasy relevant this week as he faces a very generous Saints defense. Photo: AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

Donnie Avery-WR-Colts- When Rookie QB Andrew Luck isn’t rushing for touchdowns, he’s got some fairly reliable receivers at his disposal. Avery is slowly becoming one of his favorites as witnessed last week when he was targeted six times. Only Reggie Wayne was targeted more. New England, the Colts’ opponents this week, has given up the 7th most fantasy points to WR’s this season which makes Avery even more of a threat. In his last three weeks, he has 13 receptions for 215 yards. He’ll make a decent WR3 this week and you should have no problem finding him as he is only owned in under 25% of leagues.

Daniel Thomas-RB-Dolphins- Forget Miami’s mammoth collapse last week in their stunning 31-13 defeat at home. They will now face the Buffalo Bills who have given up the most fantasy points to RBs this season. Yes, Thomas shares the carries with Reggie Bush, who had a costly fumble in last week’s contest, but Thomas gained more total yards than Bush in that game. He had 5 rushes for 21 yards and 5 catches for 34. Those of you in deeper leagues desperate for a flex play, you can can ill-afford to pass Thomas by. The 2nd round pick in the 2011 draft has three rushing TD’s on the season, one more than Stephen Jackson of the Rams… He is only owned in about a third of leagues.

#33 Dolphin RB Daniel Thomas makes a serviceable flex play in deeper ppr leagues this week. Photo: zimbio.com

Connor Barth-K-Buccaneers- Not exactly a household name yet, Barth can easily fill in for those of you who lose Giants K Lawrence Tynes or Vikings K Blair Walsh to byes this week. He has 9 field goals over 40 yards and three over 50 so far this season. He has attempted seven F.G.s and has booted 13 extra points over the past three games He has 28 fantasy points over his last three games, averaging around 9 fantasy points per week. I know I’d sign up for 9 points if my top kicker was off this week. He is available in 65% of leagues and is considered a Must Add for those short a kicker.

Bengals-Team Defense/Special Teams- The Bengals are a perfect fill-in should you own the Giants or Vikings this week, and would not be a bad pick if your team was not on a bye. Why? Well, in a word, Kansas City! Alright, two words.. In their last five games the anemic Chiefs have scored 6, 10, 16, 13, and 13 points, and two of those games were against non-defensive minded teams; Oakland and Tampa Bay. As for the Bengals, they just happen to have the leagues 4th most sacks (27) and are fifth in fumble recoveries with (8). Another Must Add for those in need of a team def. /sp. teams or those who want to upgrade who they already have on their roster this week. The Bengals are owned in 45% of leagues so check ‘em out before that number rises too much higher.

The Bengals defense, shown tackling RB David Wilson here, wreaked havoc vs the Giants last week causing them to turn the ball over several times while holding them to just 13 points. They’ll have an easier time of it this week. Photo: Al Behrman/ap

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NFL Week #1-The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 7, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 comments

We finished the regular season last year with a 52-28 record in our first year of prognosticating. (We didn’t begin picking 5 each week until week 2, thus the total of 80 games). Clearly we are looking to improve on that number although a 65% winning record isn’t so terrible.  Here now are our first weeks ‘Best Bets’:

*HOME team in CAPS

JETS over Bills- The Bills, for the most part, and quite surprisingly, decided to stand pat with last year’s team. Their only addition on offense was T.J. Graham out of North Carolina who was picked up in the third round of the draft. We like WR Stevie Johnson and the two RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  However, our problem is with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who finished last season’s final four games with 4 TDs and nine INTs. Not a great ratio. We’ll cut him a little slack as it was discovered that he played through some rib injuries, but other QBs have played through worse…

The Jets lost their last three games of the regular season in 2011 and all four pre-season games last month. This contest at Met Life Stadium on Sunday will tell a lot about who they really are and if this ‘Wildcat’ option will or won’t work. Right now the best thing they have going for them is their defense which might be all they’ll need to handle the Bills who they beat twice last season.

#10 WR Santonio Holmes scoring on one of four TD passes Sanchez threw in the Jets 28-24 win over the Bills last Nov. 27th. Photo: turnonthejets.com

Panthers over BUCS- This year the Panthers are already destined to be a much better team and not just because of the maturation of QB phenom Cam Newton. It’s their defense  which was ranked 28th in the league last year that will be much improved . Three important components of their D have returned from injuries: Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Ron Edwards. They won’t be the ’85 Bears but you WILL see a difference. Plus it will be the second season for defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator in Mike Sullivan; a run first, tough disciplinarian. QB Josh Freeman is coming off a year in which he regressed dramatically from his 2010 numbers but perhaps the Vincent Jackson signing will help him to improve. The addition of Doug Martin is a good one as he’ll compliment a much better back in LeGarrette Blount but the Panthers just have too many weapons and a rising super star at QB to lose this one.

Patriots over TITANS- New England begins their season on the road but it won’t really matter as they will be trying to shake off the remnants from the stunning loss to the N.Y. Giants in last year’s Super Bowl. There really is no reason why the Pats can’t go 14-2 or 15-1 this season because they are THAT good! Some of the changes on offense of note is WR Brandon Lloyd who takes the place of Deion Branch and Stevan Ridley who fills the spot vacated by the law firm BJGE now in Cincinnati . They still have 2 top tier tight ends, a top three QB, and pro-bowl kicker. And their defense is more than serviceable.

The Titans who have some nice pieces on offense, have a rookie QB and two more major questions that loom over this team:  Will the Chris Johnson that we’ll see be more like the 2010 stud or the 2011 disappointment? And how will WR Kenny Britt fair coming off of ACL and MCL surgery? While we wait to find out, we’ll pick the Patriots to handle the Titans this week.

#28 RB Chris Johnson says he’s ready to return to his breakout numbers of 2010 again. He’ll need to if the Titans are to be competitive. Photo: cbssports.com

VIKINGS over Jags- Jacksonville, even with some of their off-season pickups will need a few games under their belt to show how good (or bad) they are. Maurice Jones-Drew will need some time to shake off the rust from his hold out. We’ll have to wait and see if QB  Blaine Gabbert, now in his second year, can hold on to the starting job with a limited amount of quality receivers and Chad Henne waiting on the sidelines. WR Laurent Robinson had a breakout season with Dallas last year but it’s one thing receiving passes from Tony Romo and it’s quite another when it’s Gabbert.

The Vikes have two potential sleepers on their roster to watch. RB Toby Gerhart who will get a nice share of carries with Adrian Peterson not 100%,  and Visanthe Shiancoe’s replacement second round pick TE Kyle Rudolph. He’s an excellent receiver who just might surprise this year. And of course their best playmaker, Percy Harvin, will be a major part of their offense. I think Jared Allen & the rest of the Vikings defense keeps the Jags out of the endzone in this one and gives Minnesota the victory.

CARDINALS over Seahawks- The Cardinals have a pretty good team that’s coming off a rather impressive end to last season when they won 5 of their last 6 games including wins over the 49ers and Cowboys. Of course there’s Larry Fitzgerald, old reliable, and now rookie Michael Floyd on the other side of Fitz. TE Todd Heap is getting up there but can still draw atttention and RB Ryan Williams who has the potential for having a sleeper season.

Seattle might be without their feature back Marshawn Lynch (back spasms) who, as of Friday night, is still listed as Questionable. His absence would be huge and would mean that another possible sleeper, Robert Turbin, would get the starting nod. He runs low to the ground and has some nice speed for a 5’11″ 222 pounder. Keep your eyes on him if gets some major playing time on Sunday. Still and all it won’t be enough to match the more talented roster of the Arizona Cardinals.

#11 WR Larry Fitzgerald will be the main part of the Cardinals Offense and will do better this year with WR Michael Floyd on the other side of the field. Photo:neverpunt.com

WEEK #11-The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on November 19, 2011
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , . 2 comments

*Home team in CAPS

Bronco teammate #55 Mario Haggan shows QB Tim Tebow some love following the upset of the N.Y. Jets. Photo: Garrett W. Ellwood/Getty Images

1) BRONCOS over Jets- This was our first pick which was posted before Thursday night’s game. We did an entire post on why the Jets would lose and although a close one, they lost 17-13 after an amazing 95 yard final Bronco drive capped off by Tebow’s 20 yard rushing touchdown. Got to see Tim Terrific for the first time and came away thinking that he could win any game he plays. It’s been the same script in almost each one he’s started.

2) Jaguars over BROWNS- Question: What do get if you take Tebow’s drive in last night’s game OUT of the game? Yep! The Browns vs the Jags! This should be another 17-13 or 14-9 yawner…. If Peyton Hillis was playing and he was tearing it up like he did last year, we would pick the Brownies at home. But we’ll go with the Jags because MJD and their outstanding defense should be all they need to pull out a win.

Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew celebrates after scoring touchdown vs the Indianapolis Colts last week. Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images

3) Raiders over VIKINGS- Following their victory in San Diego against the Chargers, the Raiders travel to Minnesota to take on the Vikings who are coming off their embarrassing 45-7 defeat at the hands of the 9-0 Packers. QB Carson Palmer is airing the ball out with more confidence and RB Michael Bush, filling in for Darren McFadden (foot) who has been ruled out of Sunday’s game, has also chipped in with 157 rushing yards and a TD and another 85 yards through the air. The 2-7 Vikings give up the sixth most rushing yards per game (94) and Jared Allen cannot stop Raider Nation all by himself. Oakland also needs this game to stay in 1st place in the heated AFC West division race. Vikings…well they’re just playing for pride.

Raider RB Michael Bush gets to carry the rock again vs the Vikings this Sunday. Photo: Stephen Dunn/Getty Images

4) DOLPHINS over Bills- Never thought we would be picking the Fish but this week’s game vs the Bills is just too tempting. Miami has won two in a row and it could have very easily been four (see their losses vs Broncos and the Giants). The Bills have only won one game on the road this year, have only scored a total of 18 points in their last two games, and will be without Center Eric Wood (knee). Bill’s RB Fred Jackson, referring to the loss of Wood said, “It’s tough. …to lose a guy like that is definitely tough.” WR Stevie Johnson (shoulder) is questionable as well. Look for Miami to make it three in a row.

Dolphins RB Reggie Bush looks to repeat his 2 touchdown performance last week vs the Redskins. Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

5) Cowboys over REDSKINS- The 3-6 Redskins, losers of their last five games, will not be going to the post season this year. Injuries have plagued this team so badly that they’ve only scored 20 points in their last three games. Coach Mike Shanahan has veteran QB Rex Grossman starting so it’s clear he has already ‘thrown in the towel’ on this season. Conversely, the Cowboys have been an offensive machine of late, scoring 67 points in just their last two games. The (5-4) ‘Boys have done it with RB DeMarco Murray- 358 total yards and a TD over the last couple of games, and with WR Laurent Robinson filling in for injured WR Miles Austin. Robinson has 105 receiving yards and 3 TD’s in the last 2 games. Too much offense for this to be even close.

A cutting DeMarco Murray lit it up last week vs the Bills rushing for 135 yds. and a TD and 6 receptions for 36 more. Photo: Tom Pennington/Getty Images

*  Last week 1-4

** Season    26-19