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NFL WEEK #2-This Week’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 14, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 comments

We finished the first week of the season going a respectable 4-1. Our only loss coming in the Bucs 16-10 win over the disappointing Carolina Panthers. No one figured on QB Cam Newton’s total of 10 rushing yards for the game and that Tampa’s defense  would prove too much for the visiting Panthers. Here are our picks for week #2:

*Home team in CAPS:

Ravens over the EAGLES: If coach Andy Reid needs to finish the season at better than 8-8 in order to return next year, then he’s going to be off to an inauspicious 0-2 start if we’re right. Watching veterans Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company on defense even without Terrell Suggs, is a lot for any team to handle. QB Joe Flacco looked more like Joe Montana passing for 299 yards,( no INTs) and 2 touchdowns. The 44-13 rout made the Ravens only the fifth team in NFL history to score 40 or more points in a season opener. The Eagles just barely beat the lowly Browns 17-16 in a game that saw Michael Vick throw 4 picks. They’ll need more than 17 points to defeat Baltimore this Sunday.

Even without LB Terrell Suggs, the Ravens defense is still one of the best in the league & will be after Michael Vick all day. Photo: Baltimoreravens.com

CHARGERS over the Titans: San Diego, who usually starts the season off very slowly out of the gate, might be finally bucking that trend . In 2011 they won 4 out of their first 5 and we think they’ll go 2-0 after this week’s contest vs the Titans. RB Chris Johnson had a poor showing  vs the Patriots last week rushing 11 times for a net of only 4 yards! He said before the season began that we would see the 2010 version of C.J. but it didn’t look like it in week 1. QB Jake Locker who injured his shoulder on opening day practiced this week and said he felt no pain. Besides the Chargers, history goes against Tennessee as the Bolts have beaten the Titans/Oilers franchise six straight times by 17 or more points. Do you believe in history?

GIANTS over Buccaneers: The Dallas Cowboys simply outplayed the G-Men in East Rutherford in their first meeting of the season. The Giants will not be outplayed by Tampa Bay in their building this week. The defensive tandem of Osi Umenyiora, Justin Tuck, and JPP didn’t record a sack or knockdown of QB Tony Romo and we don’t think that will happen on Sunday vs QB Josh Freeman. Nor do we think that WR Victor Cruz drops three passes again this week. They will need to run the ball successfully against a very stout Tampa defense and the 10 days that the Giants had to prepare for this one should help to do that. Big Blue will ruin coach Greg Schiano’s return to N.J. with a convincing win but will have only four days rest before they face the Panthers on Thursday night.

The big three on ‘D’: JPP, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck will not go another week without a sack or two vs QB Josh Freeman. Photo: corner.bigblueinteractive.com

Redskins over the RAMS: Although the ‘Skins gave up a ton of points to the Saints last week, they still managed to do some great things on defense like picking off stud QB Drew Brees twice and sacking him a couple of times as well. But the most impressive part of the Redskins game  was the play of the two rookies; QB Robert Griffin (320 yards and 2 touchdowns-10 rushes -42 yards) and RB Albert Morris (96 rushing yards and 2 TDs). The Rams defense will not be able to keep them both in check and we expect another two amazing performances by the first year duo. The Rams could only manage 251 total net yards and 14 first downs vs the Lions in week one and they’ll need more than that to topple Washington who put up 40 points vs the Saints a week ago.

COLTS over the Vikings: Indianapolis, our second underdog pick this week, features rookie QB Andrew Luck in his home opener. In his debut last week against the Bears at Chicago, Luck made some rookie mistakes (3 interceptions-2 fumbles) but that wasn’t too shocking considering he was going up vs one of the premier defenses in the NFL. However it wasn’t all bad for the Colts. They had 11 less minutes in time of possession and still were able to amass almost as many 1st downs as the Bears  (22 vs 26) so they did move the ball. Luck threw for 309 yards and a TD and RB Donald Brown out of UCONN had a rushing TD and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The Vikings just pulled out an OT win over the Jaguars at home last week which is no great feat because if you can barely win at home you’ll probably lose on the road.

We think that #12 QB Andrew Luck’s homecoming will result in his first win in the Pros vs the Vikings. Photo: wibc.com

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NFL Week #1-The Furnace’s Five Best Bets

Posted by fantasyfurnace on September 7, 2012
Posted in: NFL. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . 8 comments

We finished the regular season last year with a 52-28 record in our first year of prognosticating. (We didn’t begin picking 5 each week until week 2, thus the total of 80 games). Clearly we are looking to improve on that number although a 65% winning record isn’t so terrible.  Here now are our first weeks ‘Best Bets’:

*HOME team in CAPS

JETS over Bills- The Bills, for the most part, and quite surprisingly, decided to stand pat with last year’s team. Their only addition on offense was T.J. Graham out of North Carolina who was picked up in the third round of the draft. We like WR Stevie Johnson and the two RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  However, our problem is with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who finished last season’s final four games with 4 TDs and nine INTs. Not a great ratio. We’ll cut him a little slack as it was discovered that he played through some rib injuries, but other QBs have played through worse…

The Jets lost their last three games of the regular season in 2011 and all four pre-season games last month. This contest at Met Life Stadium on Sunday will tell a lot about who they really are and if this ‘Wildcat’ option will or won’t work. Right now the best thing they have going for them is their defense which might be all they’ll need to handle the Bills who they beat twice last season.

#10 WR Santonio Holmes scoring on one of four TD passes Sanchez threw in the Jets 28-24 win over the Bills last Nov. 27th. Photo: turnonthejets.com

Panthers over BUCS- This year the Panthers are already destined to be a much better team and not just because of the maturation of QB phenom Cam Newton. It’s their defense  which was ranked 28th in the league last year that will be much improved . Three important components of their D have returned from injuries: Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, and Ron Edwards. They won’t be the ’85 Bears but you WILL see a difference. Plus it will be the second season for defensive coordinator Sean McDermott.

Conversely, Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator in Mike Sullivan; a run first, tough disciplinarian. QB Josh Freeman is coming off a year in which he regressed dramatically from his 2010 numbers but perhaps the Vincent Jackson signing will help him to improve. The addition of Doug Martin is a good one as he’ll compliment a much better back in LeGarrette Blount but the Panthers just have too many weapons and a rising super star at QB to lose this one.

Patriots over TITANS- New England begins their season on the road but it won’t really matter as they will be trying to shake off the remnants from the stunning loss to the N.Y. Giants in last year’s Super Bowl. There really is no reason why the Pats can’t go 14-2 or 15-1 this season because they are THAT good! Some of the changes on offense of note is WR Brandon Lloyd who takes the place of Deion Branch and Stevan Ridley who fills the spot vacated by the law firm BJGE now in Cincinnati . They still have 2 top tier tight ends, a top three QB, and pro-bowl kicker. And their defense is more than serviceable.

The Titans who have some nice pieces on offense, have a rookie QB and two more major questions that loom over this team:  Will the Chris Johnson that we’ll see be more like the 2010 stud or the 2011 disappointment? And how will WR Kenny Britt fair coming off of ACL and MCL surgery? While we wait to find out, we’ll pick the Patriots to handle the Titans this week.

#28 RB Chris Johnson says he’s ready to return to his breakout numbers of 2010 again. He’ll need to if the Titans are to be competitive. Photo: cbssports.com

VIKINGS over Jags- Jacksonville, even with some of their off-season pickups will need a few games under their belt to show how good (or bad) they are. Maurice Jones-Drew will need some time to shake off the rust from his hold out. We’ll have to wait and see if QB  Blaine Gabbert, now in his second year, can hold on to the starting job with a limited amount of quality receivers and Chad Henne waiting on the sidelines. WR Laurent Robinson had a breakout season with Dallas last year but it’s one thing receiving passes from Tony Romo and it’s quite another when it’s Gabbert.

The Vikes have two potential sleepers on their roster to watch. RB Toby Gerhart who will get a nice share of carries with Adrian Peterson not 100%,  and Visanthe Shiancoe’s replacement second round pick TE Kyle Rudolph. He’s an excellent receiver who just might surprise this year. And of course their best playmaker, Percy Harvin, will be a major part of their offense. I think Jared Allen & the rest of the Vikings defense keeps the Jags out of the endzone in this one and gives Minnesota the victory.

CARDINALS over Seahawks- The Cardinals have a pretty good team that’s coming off a rather impressive end to last season when they won 5 of their last 6 games including wins over the 49ers and Cowboys. Of course there’s Larry Fitzgerald, old reliable, and now rookie Michael Floyd on the other side of Fitz. TE Todd Heap is getting up there but can still draw atttention and RB Ryan Williams who has the potential for having a sleeper season.

Seattle might be without their feature back Marshawn Lynch (back spasms) who, as of Friday night, is still listed as Questionable. His absence would be huge and would mean that another possible sleeper, Robert Turbin, would get the starting nod. He runs low to the ground and has some nice speed for a 5’11″ 222 pounder. Keep your eyes on him if gets some major playing time on Sunday. Still and all it won’t be enough to match the more talented roster of the Arizona Cardinals.

#11 WR Larry Fitzgerald will be the main part of the Cardinals Offense and will do better this year with WR Michael Floyd on the other side of the field. Photo:neverpunt.com

Fantasy Baseball: Week #19 Waiver Wire Pickups

Posted by fantasyfurnace on August 6, 2012
Posted in: MLB. Tagged: , , , , , , , , , . 3 comments

There are five weeks left in fantasy baseball’s regular season so let’s get right to this week’s waiver wire pickups…

Jarrod Dyson- OF-Royals- The team might no longer be relevant, but this speed merchant has been on fire and made himself so noticed that manager Ned Yost has decided to start him in center vs righties while veteran Jeff Francoeur will bat vs lefties. Dyson, who turns 28 this month, has spent the bulk of his career in the minors; he’s only played in 44 major league games prior to this year. In his last 5 games, he is batting .526 (10-19) with 2 RBI, 3 runs scored, and 5 stolen bases.Four of the five have been multi-hit games. Nobody owns him (2%) so if you need speed grab him off waivers quickly.

Royals OF Jarrod Dysens can help your team down the stretch with his blazing speed. (5 SB in his last 5 games). Photo: ology.com

Chris Johnson-3B-Diamondbacks- Some playerrs just need a change of scenery in order to find a groove, and such is the case with Johnson. Since coming over to Arizona from the lowly Astros on July 29th, he is batting .381 (8-21) with 3 homers and 10 RBI. He had 8 HRs in 92 games with the ‘Stros before the trade. Probably safe to assume that he won’t keep this pace up for the rest of the season but you could do worse than Johnson who’s career BA is just under .280. Ranked 18th among all position players in Yahoo! leagues last week, Johnson is available in 65% of leagues.

Ryan Ludwick-OF-Reds- If your team is short on power, now is the time to get a seasoned vet on your team. Just one year removed from hitting 23 home runs, Ludwick, on his sixth team in his career, already had 19 dingers to his credit. He’s been a beast over the past 10 days and looks like there’s no letting up. In his last 8 games, he is batting .414 (12-29), with 3 doubles, 4 homers, and has knocked in 14 runs while raising his season BA 13 points to respectable .261. The former 2nd roind pick of the Oakland A’s back in 1999, Ludwick is owned in 40% of leagues and is a must add in multiple categories in 12+ leagues and A.L. only leagues..

#48 OF Ryan Ludwig already is on pace to hit 30+ home runs. He had 23 all of last season Photo: zimbio.com

Scott Feldman-SP,RP-Rangers- After a miserable start to the season, (he went 0-6), Feldman has come on strong as he has won 6 of the last 7 games he has appeared in. He’s the 15th ranked pitcher in Yahoo! leagues over the past 14 days. He’s had a bumpy road over the past several years going 17-8 in ’09, followed by almost a complete reversal in ’10 when he went 7-11. An injury plagued season last year saw him appear in only 11 games. His season ERA of 4.52 and 1.30 WHIP so far this year are both a bit high for our liking, however ‘get him while he’s hot!’ We would only recommend Feldman in deeper leagues and for streaming purposes as this run won’t last. Only owned in 12% of leagues, pay attention to his match-ups down the stretch and deploy accordingly.

Tom Wilhelmsen-RP-Mariners- There is a lot we like about this 28 year old in only his second season in the majors. His strikeout to walk numbers jump of the page for starters; 64 Ks to 17BBs. More importantly for fantasy owners, his 15 saves in 17 save opportunities is what will help you more. Wilhelmsen’s ERA of 2.47 and 1.10 WHIP are also quite impressive. You’re probably thinking that since he’s the closer on a Mariner’s team that the saves won’t come frequently enough to help you in that category. Well, think again…how does 7 saves in the last 11 games played by Seattle sound? He is not what we refer to as widely owned, but he is still available in 35% of leagues which is a significant amount. More than likely you will find him in leagues of 14 and deeper but check him out in yours just to make sure. He’s THAT good…

#54 RP and closer Tom Wilhemsen, has saved 15 of his 17 save opportunities and might not be available in your league but is worth a look nonetheless. Photo: zimbio.com